Good morning.
So, here we go again. More byelections. Every political party has been tempering expectations: Labour said a victory for them in Tamworth or Mid Bedfordshire would be a “moonshot”, insisting that “neither of them are on our target list”. But no one has been more disheartened about their chances than the government. A leaked memo indicated that the Tories were expecting losses in both byelections, even though they have held Mid Bedfordshire comfortably since 1931.
The worst came to fruition for the Conservatives after a night of defeats in both constituencies. In Tamworth, Sarah Edwards picked up a majority of 1,316 for Labour. In Mid Bedfordshire, a seat that the Tories were hoping to hold, Labour secured a majority of 1,192. These might seem like marginal figures, but considering the size of the previous Conservative majorities in both seats, it is a significant moment as a general election looms.
Making gains in Conservative strongholds will no doubt be viewed as a seismic victory for Keir Starmer and a mandate for his politics. Starmer has said that these results show that “Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map”.
For today’s newsletter, I will take you through the night with the help of Guardian reporters Kevin Rawlinson and Sammy Gecsoyler. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Israel | Western officials are warning that the risk of regional “spillover” from the Israel-Hamas war is real, after US forces in the region faced increasing threats and American bases in Iraq and Syria were repeatedly targeted by drone attacks.
Maternity | Almost two-thirds of maternity units provide dangerously substandard care that puts women and babies at risk, the NHS watchdog has said in a damning report. The Care Quality Commission (CQC) has rated 65% of maternity services in England as either “inadequate” or “requires improvement” for the safety of care – up from 54% last year.
EU | The EU has raised security concerns about the trade in “golden passports” and vowed to tighten visa controls after revealing that five Caribbean states have sold citizenship to 88,000 individuals from countries including Iran, Russia and China.
UK politics | Rishi Sunak’s controversial fund to support startups during the Covid pandemic invested nearly £2m in companies linked to his wife, Guardian analysis has found. None of Akshata Murty’s investments that benefited from the Future Fund appear publicly on Sunak’s register of ministerial interests.
Weather | The body of a 57-year-old woman has been recovered from a river in Angus, Police Scotland have said, as hundreds of people were ordered to evacuate their homes in a town in the east of the country because of fears that the River Esk will burst its banks during Storm Babet.
In depth: “This is clearly foreshadowing how they think they are going to fight the next general election”
The spectre of Chris Pincher and Nadine Dorries, figures who left their jobs in a haze of iniquity, has made these byelections all the more fraught for the government. Pincher’s alleged misconduct sparked a scandal that ultimately led to Boris Johnson’s departure and the delay in Dorries quitting the Commons had reportedly caused “enormous discontent” in her former constituency, with voters warning they would make their indignation clear by abstaining from the ballot box.
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Mid Bedfordshire: a historic loss
The Conservative party has held Mid Bedfordshire for nearly 100 years. Nadine Dorries won the rural seat comprising several towns and villages five times since her election in 2005, bringing in a 24,000 majority in 2019. Less than four years later, her antics left the party in tatters in the area, with local residents frustrated at her hands-off approach (at the time of her departure, Dorries had not spoken in the commons in over a year, moved out of her constituency and stopped holding in-person surgeries).
Days before the election was held, the bookies narrowly favoured the Conservatives, but Labour remained hopeful, despite fears that they would end up splitting the vote with the Liberal Democrats.
Their quiet confidence paid off. Labour’s candidate Alistair Strathern, a former maths teacher, won 13,872 votes, overturning the 24,000 majority. Strathern nodded to the seismic nature of his win in his speech, saying that the result “made history” and represented a need for “change”. The Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye secured 12,680 votes and the Liberal Democrats came in third with 9,420 votes.
The BBC reported that the result in Mid Bedfordshire “broke the record for the largest numerical majority overturned at a byelection” and that it was the first time since 1962 that Labour had won two byelections in one day.
There were, as expected, cheers from the winning side. Kevin Rawlinson noted that Strathern never stopped smiling. “I’m not sure if that is how he is generally or if he is just on top of the world this evening,” Kevin says but he seemed “very bright and chirpy” – as you would be if you had just made history.
As analysis of the results comes in, the Labour party clearly want to steer the narrative away from the idea that this was purely a protest vote. “The candidate, local party officials and Peter Kyle, who was running the election campaign, made a point of constantly saying that this is Keir Starmer’s Labour party and [the win is a result of] what he’s done to modernise the party,” Kevin says. “This is clearly foreshadowing how they think they are going to fight the next general election”.
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Tamworth: a bellwether byelection
Tamworth has been a more straightforward, one-on-one fight between Labour and the Conservatives. The rural Staffordshire constituency has recently become a Conservative safe seat. Like Dorries, Tamworth’s last MP Chris Pincher won a significant 20,000 majority in the last general election. Pincher resigned after he lost his appeal against a suspension for allegedly groping two men, triggering the sixth byelection this year.
The Conservatives have been quietly bracing themselves for a bad result, telling the New Statesman that the race is “going to be tight”, especially as Pincher had “hardly been a visible presence here (in Tamworth) for a while”.
They were right to be nervous. Labour’s candidate Sarah Edwards overturned a near 20,000 Conservative majority, clinching the area for Labour for the first time since 1996.
In the end, Tory candidate, Andrew Cooper received 10,403 votes, meaning that Labour had secured a 23.89% swing.
Sammy Gecsoyler, who is in Tamworth, explained what this win symbolises: “In 1996 Labour also won this area (it was a slightly different constituency with minor boundary changes) on a 22 point swing and that was seen as a bellwether byelection for what would end up being a landslide victory for the Labour party in 1997. This result was an even greater swing”. The Labour party will no doubt use this to bolster the idea that they are heading towards a similar victory at the next general election.
Like most vote counts, there was some drama, Sammy says. The Conservative candidate decided he did not want to stick around to watch himself lose. “It got to the point where all the candidates were standing on stage waiting for Cooper to join them and council officials were telling Tory party operatives that they might have to declare without him,” Sammy says. He even overheard one Tory staffer say that Cooper got lost in the car park – a likely story.
Cooper finally made his grand entrance, arriving through a different door and rushed on to the stage. He did not hang around though, despite his tardiness, and swiftly exited once the results were announced. “He scuttled off stage and left through a fire exit. Most of the press tried to run after him but he got away pretty quickly,” Sammy says.
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What does this mean?
On the one hand, these Labour victories are a big deal. Both Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth were comfortably Conservative seats in the so-called blue wall. The vote there has collapsed – for now at least. It also now shows a trend as this is the fourth time in less than a year that the government has lost seats in byelections.
On the other hand, there are extenuating circumstances that should be considered. The public sometimes votes in a different way during a byelection than they would in a general election. Both Chris Pincher and Nadine Dorries left their jobs in bad circumstances. In Tamworth, voter turnout was low, at 35.87% it was little more than half the 2019 figure.
However, even with these caveats considered, the results are undeniably very good news for Keir Starmer, and will probably motivate Labour with a strong surge expected for the party at the next general election.
The results suggest that Labour may be regaining ground in some seats that they formerly held. Sammy points out that in 1997 Labour had nine MPs in Staffordshire, which is where Tamworth is located, but by 2019 they had lost all of those seats. “Tamworth in particular was a strong Tory seat and the fact that Labour has won here suggests that they may be regaining ground in the county”, Sammy adds.
For Rishi Sunak and the Conservative party, the results are not great. These huge swings for Labour signal that the Conservative vote could collapse sometime in the next 14 months. For more analysis, keep a keen eye on the Guardian homepage.
What else we’ve been reading
After her 40th birthday, writer Afua Hirsch (pictured) promised herself “a year of adornment” which meant restoring ancestral traditions and moving away from Eurocentric beauty standards. Niellah Arboine reviews her book, released yesterday. Nyima
A group of students have been beaten and arrested in Uganda for protesting against a 900-mile pipeline. Nina Lakhani’s report exposes the disturbing practices the government has been deploying to crack down on climate protests. Nimo
In Jerusalem, relatives of activists killed by Hamas have been speaking to Emma Graham-Harrison and Quique Kierszenbaum, asking Israel not to bring more pain and hurt to Palestinian families with savage retaliation attacks. Nyima
Lady Bird? Little Women? Brooklyn? Saoirse Ronan seemingly steals the show in every project that she is a part of. Anne Billson does us all a favour by ranking her Top 10 performances. Nimo
Adrian Chiles writes about school trips possibly being under threat and describes the time he once accompanied primary schoolchildren on the Tube as “one of the most testing challenges of his life”. Nyima.
Sport
Rugby union | Freddie Steward (pictured, left) has been recalled to England’s starting lineup for tomorrow’s World Cup semi-final against South Africa with Marcus Smith absent from the squad due to injury. Steve Borthwick has also handed surprise starts to Joe Marler and George Martin in the pack in place of the vice-captain Ellis Genge and Ollie Chessum, respectively.
Cricket | Virat Kohli gave another demonstration of his ability to anchor successful run chases in Thursday’s seven-wicket win over Bangladesh in the World Cup, and a 48th one-day international hundred was the icing on the cake for the 34-year-old.
Football | Football Association chief executive Mark Bullingham has said he “recognises the hurt” caused to the Jewish community by the decision not to light the Wembley arch in the colours of Israel after the attack by Hamas and called the decision “one of the hardest” he has had to make in the role.
The front pages
The Guardian’s front page is focused on aid set to arrive in Gaza with the headline “Warning that relief convoy for Gaza too little, too late. The Telegraph leads on the expected Israeli ground offensive with the headline “‘Get ready to see Gaza from the inside’”, a quote from Israel’s defence minister. The Mail’s headline also quotes him as saying “There is no forgiveness for this thing. Only total annihilation of Hamas…you will soon see Gaza from the inside”. Other papers take a more regional view. The Times says “Do your bit to ease Israel crisis, Sunak urges Saudis”. In the Financial Times, “Israel’s allies warn citizens to leave Lebanon as regional tension rises”. The i takes a similar line with “Fear grows that war will spread, as UK and US tell their citizens to leave Lebanon”. The Mirror has a focus closer to home with its take on the Covid inquiry. “Reckless & Callous” are the words on its front page, referring to Rishi Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme in 2020. And in the Sun, “My Paul died happy smoking a spliff” on TV star Paul O’Grady’s death.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Bodies, Netflix
Bodies is an adaptation of the late Si Spencer’s graphic novel from 2015, and the series is dedicated to his memory. With twists and turns the plot follows four detectives discovering the same body decades apart in the same location. Beginning in 2023, hopping to 1941 and time travelling back even further to 1890. It’s thrilling, tense and addictive. Mannix (Stephen Graham, pictured) seems to be the key in this whodunnit. Rebecca Nicholson
Music
Sampha: Lahai
After six years, Sampha is back with his new album, Lahai. Like its predecessor, it feels deeply personal. Judging by the lyrics, Sisay’s life has been taken up with fatherhood and something alluding to an existential crisis. Sisay could have got on fine without another solo album, since for the past couple of years his efforts were focused on songwriting for others, and occasional guest appearances with superstar pals. But Lahai is still intriguing and is worth celebrating. Alexis Petridis
Film
Christine
This adaptation of Stephen King’s cult horror classic came out in 1983 and is now revived for its 40th anniversary. The film, about a car that infects its or rather her owners with horror, rage and murderous despair, is a perfectly enjoyable tale of the macabre which can be read as a satirical story of male arrested development which manifests itself in car obsession. Now with the 2023 viewpoint, there is another layer of irony in seeing this creature from America’s automotive golden age. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
Class of ‘88
Widely available, episodes weekly from Thursday
Will Smith hosts his new podcast and offers a look at the year he claims “changed hip-hop”: 1988. It’s part anecdote-packed autobiography of Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince, part rap history featuring interviews with the likes of Queen Latifah. At times, it’s like listening to Smith taking a trip down memory lane with his star-studded crew – but no worse for that. Alexi Duggins
Today in Focus
How Taylor Swift built her music empire
This has been a huge year for Taylor Swift. The Eras tour, which is expected to gross about $1.4bn, is a journey through all her albums, from her early country records to her more recent chart-topping pop classics.
“It’s like being bludgeoned with delight”, the Guardian’s deputy music editor Laura Snapes tells Hannah Moore about her experience at an Eras concert in Los Angeles and explains how Swift has achieved this phenomenal success through her songwriting, PR decisions, business acumen and her relationship with her fans.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
From bat librarians to ferret electricians to honey-hunting birds, animals who work for a living can be found all over the globe. In Portugal, bats protect books from insects in Joanina Library while resourceful birds hunt for honey in Mozambique and rats hunt for mines in Cambodia (pictured). Meanwhile, hawk bouncers used to scare pigeons can be spotted all over London (especially at Kings Cross and Victoria railway stations). Emma Beddington explains that sometimes the right person for the job isn’t a person at all.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
