The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that a fresh escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran could upend its forecast of a significant global oil surplus in 2027, even as June data showed supply partially recovering after the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
"An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year," the IEA said in its Oil Market Report for July 2026.
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