France's government on Wednesday faces a no confidence vote that could spell the end of the short-lived administration of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, plunging the country into uncharted waters of political chaos.
A standoff between Barnier and the opposition over the 2025 budget – which has caused jitters on financial markets – follows months of tensions since the 73-year-old became prime minister in September.
The National Assembly is due to debate two motions brought by the hard-left and far-right in a standoff with Barnier over the controversial social security legislation, which he used emergency executive powers to force through without a vote.
The far-right National Rally (RN) of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is expected to vote for the motion put forwards by the left, giving it enough numbers to pass.
Asked on French television if there was a chance his government could survive Wednesday's vote, Barnier replied: "I want this and it is possible. It depends on the MPs.
"I think it is possible that there is this reflex of responsibility where – beyond political differences, divergences, the normal contradictions in a democracy – we tell ourselves that there is a higher interest."
No confidence vote
According to right-wing newspaper Le Figaro: "Le Pen will plunge France into the great political and financial unknown".
Macron – who is on a visit to Saudi Arabia – is appearing so far as a spectator in the crisis, prompting some voices to question if he should consider resigning to break the impasse.
The latest turbulence comes after months of political instability in the country following this summer's inconclusive snap parliamentary elections that were called by Macron in a botched bid to halt the march of the far right.
No new elections can be called for a year after the legislative polls, narrowing Macron's options.
'New period' of uncertainty
Barnier has promised to improve France's fiscal position by €60 billion euros in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public-sector deficit to five percent of gross domestic product, from just over 6 percent of GDP this year.
He has made a number of concessions to the opposition including scrapping plans for a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy from next year.
But the premier has failed to win support, with commentators suggesting his government will have fallen by the end of the week.
This comes as Finance Minister Antoine Armand told France 2 television on Tuesday that lawmakers would be "damaging" the country by ousting Barnier's government.
"Who will bear the consequences? First and foremost, the French," he said.
If Barnier's government falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou's government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.
The lifespan of Barnier's government would also be the shortest of any administration of France's Fifth Republic since 1958.
Le Pen's gambit
Le Pen has meanwhile been embroiled in a high-profile embezzlement trial.
If found guilty in March, she could be blocked from participating in France's next presidential election, scheduled for 2027.
It has been suggested that Le Pen is playing a high-risk game and seeking to bring down Macron by ousting Barnier.
Were Macron to step down, elections would have to be called within a month, well ahead of the verdict in her trial.
