Attacking the credibility of polls (and pollsters) has become a kind of bank shot for those aiming to destroy the credibility of the institution that polls simulate: elections. Among MAGA adherents, if the polls are off, it’s not because polling has become more difficult. It’s because everything is corrupt and nothing is true.
The political science department of Vanderbilt University has said that pre-election polls in 2020 exhibited the “largest errors in 40 years.” That mistake hovers over the 2022 election and influences the work, and reputations, of the partisans and pollsters (and partisan pollsters) who are trying to gauge the trajectory of a large, diverse and unruly electorate.
One partisan who has staked out a clear patch of terrain in this debate is Simon Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic consultant. Rosenberg is a particular kind of political player, both partisan and credible. While he wants Democrats to win, he also values his reputation as an astute analyst of American politics; he wants to be right.
