This is as close as it gets. France’s wide lead to win the World Cup shrank after Kalshi cut Argentina’s price following their dominant group stage.
France remains the favorite to win, with 24%, while Argentina trails by 2.6%, at 21.4%. This is the closest the margin between the two favorites has been since March 29.
2026 World Cup Winner - Kalshi
- France 24%
- Argentina 21.4%
Kalshi’s World Cup market offers a profit of $29.54 for France if they win and $34.25 for Argentina if they win. Both are offered at a $10 trade.
Pulling ahead
France demolished the group stage, beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0, and Norway 4-1. Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele led the charge through the first three matches, with Mbappe bracing in the first two and Dembele scoring a hat-trick in the first 30 minutes against Norway.
Mike Maignan has been an anchor at goalkeeper as well, saving 5 of 7 shots (71%) with a penalty stop and only two goals conceded. The defense has been rock solid when called upon, while France holds possession on offense for long stretches.
For Argentina, it’s been all Lionel Messi. Messi has six goals to lead all players in the tournament, including an opening hat-trick against Algeria, a brace against Austria, and a free-kick goal against Jordan. He is now the all-time leading goal scorer in World Cup history.
Messi has cemented his status as the greatest player of all time, while goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has been equally dominant. Martinez has a perfect 100% save rate and two clean sheets.
Looking ahead
In the Round of 32 knockout round, France faces Sweden as 89% favorites. Argentina enters as 92% favorites against Cape Verde.
From there, France and Argentina are on opposite sides of the bracket and would not face one another until a potential finals match.
A France win sets up a Round of 16 match against the winner of Germany vs. Paraguay. Canada, the Netherlands, or Morocco wait in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, Senegal, Belgium, USA, Bosnia, Austria, Spain, Croatia, and Portugal await.
Argentina’s path after Cape Verde consists of either Australia or Egypt in the Round of 16, Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia, and Ghana in the quarterfinals, and Brazil, Japan, Ivory Coast, Norway, Mexico, Ecuador, England, and DR Congo in the semifinals.
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