Voter turnout across France has surged to a near four-decade high as voters cast their ballots in the first round of high stakes, snap parliamentary elections that could lead to the far-right party of Marine Le Pen forming a government in a historic first.
While polls suggest support for Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigrant National Rally (RN) has strengthened in recent days, the outcome of the two-round election, called three weeks ago by the president, Emmanuel Macron, following the crushing defeat of his allies in the European parliamentary elections, remains highly uncertain.
With three hours remaining until polls closed on Sunday, voter turnout had reached 59.39% – an increase of nearly 20 points compared with the 2022 elections, according to the interior ministry. Turnout is estimated to be the highest since the 1986 legislative vote, the research director for Ipsos France, Mathieu Gallard, told Reuters.
The high turnout is likely to mean that many more third-place candidates will make it to the second round of the election, Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe, said on social media. “Why does that matter? It allows Left and the Macron centre to make deals to withdraw (the) worst-placed candidates and allow the others a free run against the Far Right candidate in Round 2,” he wrote.
The outcome of these tactical alliances could decide whether the RN “approaches” a majority in the second round, he added.
In the lead-up to Sunday’s election, one poll carried out for Les Echos newspaper suggested that the RN was on course to win 37% of the national vote, up two points from more than a week ago, while another poll carried out for BFM TV estimated the far-right party could win between 260 and 295 seats – potentially giving it an outright majority among France’s 577 constituencies.
Polls suggest the New Popular Front (NFP), a broad but fragile leftwing alliance, could receive 28% of the vote while Macron’s centrist bloc trails behind at 20%.
Official campaigning for the first-round vote ended at midnight on Friday. Following Sunday’s vote, campaigning will resume on Monday for a further five days before voters are called back to the polls for a final, decisive second-round ballot on 7 July.
Much could change in the five days between rounds, particularly if candidates embrace tactical alliances and withdrawals in order to block the far-right from winning a majority.
In recent days, candidates from the leftwing coalition and Macron’s centrist alliance have scrambled to remind voters that the RN, launched in the early 1970s as the National Front, once included in its ranks former members of a Waffen-SS military unit under Nazi command during the second world war.
The party was long seen as rife with antisemitic, homophobic and racist views, and widely regarded as a danger to democracy that needed to be kept out of mainstream politics. While Marine Le Pen, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s daughter, has spent much of the past decade working to soften the party’s image, its core message remains one of deep hostility to immigration and the so-called Islamisation of society.
The party has vowed to drastically slash immigration and bar dual nationals from certain state jobs, along with promises to cut taxes on energy, exempt people under the age of 30 from income tax and work towards abolishing Macron’s pension reform.
Ahead of Sunday’s first round, Le Pen urged voters to go out and vote. “Victory is within our grasp, so let’s seize this historic opportunity and get out and vote!” she wrote on social media.
Most analysts suggest the most likely outcome is a polarised parliament, where consensus between the larger far-right and leftwing blocs, and a smaller number of Macron’s allies would be nearly impossible, leading to political paralysis.
If the RN wins a majority, the party chief, Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege who has no governing experience, could become prime minister in a fraught cohabitation with Macron.
The result could pit the two men – who have vastly different visions of France’s future – against each other. One example is France’s strong support for Ukraine, championed by Macron since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Bardella has said he would use his powers as prime minister to stop Macron from continuing to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine.
Following Sunday’s first-round vote, Macron is planning to convene a government meeting to decide the further course of action, government sources told AFP.
The president’s shock decision to call parliamentary elections has sparked dissent among his allies and cast Europe’s second-biggest economy into uncertainty. Even so, Macron has stood by his decision, reportedly hoping it will force voters to confront whether they are ready to allow the far-right to tighten its grip on power.
In the lead-up to Sunday’s first round vote, Macron sought to hammer home this point, warning that France risked being plunged into a “civil war” if either of his “extreme” opponents won a majority.
The president has insisted he will serve out the remainder of his second term until 2027, regardless of which party wins.
