As expected since before the tournament, Kylian Mbappé and France enter as the favorite to advance to its second straight World Cup final.
While France is favored on Kalshi’s World Cup market, there are several strong indications that point to Spain keeping things close and potentially pulling off an “upset” based on the lines.
France vs. Spain - Kalshi Markets
- To Advance : France (59%) vs. Spain (41%)
- Reg. Moneyline : France (42%) vs. Spain (29%), Draw (31%)
- Reg. Spread : France -1.5 (19%)
- Reg. Total : 2.5 goals
Looking at the prices for France and Spain to advance, trading $10 profits $6.20 on France and $13.41 on Spain. Take note that all regulation lines only count towards the first 90 minutes and any stoppage time, not extra time or penalty shootouts. The price to advance includes all playing time.
Spain closer than we think
France has dominated the tournament, coming into the semifinals with the second-most goals (16) and shot attempts (110) while leading with 47 shots on goal. They’ve won every match outright, five of them by two or more goals and includes three clean sheet wins.
Despite trailing 16-11 in goals, Spain leads in several key categories. It is tied with France at 110 shot attempts and leads with 66 shots inside the penalty area to France’s 61.
Spain also slightly leads in possession at 65% to 60%. Another indication of its tournament-leading defense that’s conceded just one goal and 289 forced turnovers to opponents.
France vs. Spain all-time
The teams have met 39 times historically. Spain leads the all-time series with 18 wins, 7 draws and 13 losses. They have a 71-44 edge in goals (+27 differential).
The most recent meeting came in 2025 in the UEFA Nations League semifinal, which Spain won 5-4.
Kickoff is set for Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET on FOX from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
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