Az from FPL Blackbox returns with his latest set of Fantasy Premier League tips on SportsCasting, this time looking into the best and worst defences in the league and what it could mean for your teams ahead of Gameweek 14.
The most chaotic part of the season is upon us and for many, the next month will make or break our FPL seasons.
We’re 13 weeks down, so I thought I’d use this article to have a look at the best and worst defences in the league, and how we can use these stats to our advantage. A bit later in the week, I’ll do the same for the best and worst attacks, so make sure you’ve got SportsCasting bookmarked so you don’t miss out!
FPL Gameweek 14 Tips: Best and Worst Defences
Best 5 Defences (All Season; Sorted By Minutes Per xG Conceded Excl. Penalties)
- Liverpool (116.4)
- Nottingham Forest (102.8)
- Arsenal (96.1)
- Chelsea (88.5)
- Aston Villa (85.7)
Three teams are conceding less than 1xG a game and it may surprise a few people to see Nottingham Forest in second place. They might have conceded 6 goals to Newcastle and Arsenal, but they’ve been miserly otherwise, only conceding more than 1 goal in 1 match beforehand (vs. Brighton in Gameweek 5).
It’s stuttering Man City up next… it might not be as easy a game as it looks on paper for Pep’s men, with Erling Haaland (£15.0m) likely to face a stern battle against Nikola Milenkovic (£4.5m) and Murillo (£4.6m).
Liverpool have a few injuries in defence, but Trent Alexander-Arnold (£6.9m) looked great against City in his last game and might be back on the menu over Christmas. Virgil Van Dijk (£6.4m) is the top scoring defender so far this season and may also see some more investment.
Elsewhere, Arsenal and Chelsea have the fixtures to build on solid starts to their seasons, with Gabriel (£6.2m) and Jurrien Timber (£5.5m) also offering promising attacking threat. You don’t really get this in the Chelsea ranks, with Levi Colwill’s (£4.5m) security of starts perhaps making him the best option if you’re backing the Blues.
Villa are the final side worth a mention. They’ve looked tired in recent matches and might not be tempting many with investment in their backline, but shutouts vs. Bayern Munich and Juventus in the Champions League is encouraging. Lucas Digne (£4.7m) remains the standout option for anyone looking to invest.
Worst 5 Defences (All Season; Sorted By Minutes Per xG Conceded Excl. Penalties)
- Southampton (48.7)
- Leicester (51.0)
- Ipswich (46.6)
- West Ham (56.5)
- Brentford (57.1)
It’s not particularly surprising to see the three newly promoted teams cut adrift from the rest with regards to underlying defensive statistics. It might raise a few eyebrows that the team who have conceded the most goals this season (Wolves) are not on the list however. Good news for those holding Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.7m)?
Southampton have a real test against Chelsea in the next game, with Nicolas Jackson (£8.0m) and Cole Palmer (£11.0m) surely licking their lips at the prospect of facing a team with key men likely missing through suspension and injury.
Leicester begin their new regime under Ruud van Nistelrooy against fellow strugglers West Ham. I’m backing goals in this game, with Jamie Vardy (£5.5m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.4m) being intriguing differentials for Gameweek 14 and beyond.
Investment in the West Ham and Brentford backline is unlikely, but Leif Davis (£4.5m) is attracting interest with his promising underlying attacking numbers. Note that you are almost certainly reliant on assists (or even the odd wonder goal) with him however.
No team has conceded more big chances than Ipswich this season (51) and only Southampton have conceded a higher xG (27.8 vs. 27.1).
