Through four games of their second-round series, the Heat have been the smarter, more physical, more disciplined and ultimately better team than the Knicks. Miami has raced out to a 3–1 lead, and the only game the team dropped came without Jimmy Butler.
The battle will now shift to New York, where the Knicks will hope to avoid a quick exit against a team they were favored to beat. Here’s what New York will need to do to avoid the end of its season.
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1. Rebound the ball!
This was New York’s strength headed into the series. The Knicks dominated the Cavs on the boards in the opening round, with Mitchell Robinson looking like the sci-fi mashup of Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain. The Heat have flipped the script, outrebounding the Knicks by 11 over the two games in Miami.
The offensive boards were the difference in Game 4, with the Heat grabbing seven of their own misses in the fourth compared to New York’s one as both teams threw up brick after brick. It was an inexcusable effort from a Knicks team that has a considerable size advantage in the frontcourt.
2. Find their three-point stroke
New York was not a great three-point-shooting team in the regular season—35.4% from deep, 19th in the league—but it was not as bad as it’s been in the second round. The Knicks are shooting a clanky 28.2% from the outside. Players either look hesitant to shoot or are missing outright. This is especially a problem when Miami is packing the paint as aggressively as it has been.
The Heat deserve credit for executing their defensive scheme. They are sending multiple bodies at Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson, and closing out hard when necessary. They are also willing to give up looks from beyond the arc if it means helping on Brunson and Randle in the lane. The Knicks haven’t been able to take advantage and leverage that strategy into three-point success. Josh Hart, Obi Toppin, R.J. Barrett, and Quentin Grimes are going to get looks. They have to find a way to connect.
3. More from Julius Randle
Randle had a better Game 4 than Game 3, but it wasn’t enough from someone who will likely make All-NBA this year. His six turnovers and six fouls largely negated his 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting. His attention to detail defensively wasn’t good enough, allowing too many blow-bys on the perimeter and giving up offensive rebounds to smaller players.
It’s not easy against a locked-in defense. But stars need to step up this time of year. He has to be more sharp on defense, and remain efficient on offense without coughing up the ball.
4. Are there any answers for the bench?
The Heat have had success in this series taking advantage of non-star minutes. Kyle Lowry has led Miami’s second unit—and particularly at the start of second quarters—has tilted games in the Heat’s favor by captaining groups without one or both of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the floor. New York should be dominating when Miami’s stars aren’t in the game, but that hasn’t been the case.
The Knicks are in a tough spot here, especially without Immanuel Quickley, who missed Game 4 with a sprained ankle. Tom Thibodeau tried to compensate by moving Josh Hart to the bench and giving a few minutes to Miles McBride. It didn’t work. Lowry (15) outscored New York’s bench (10) by himself Monday. If Quickley can’t go in Game 5, this could be another sore spot for the Knicks.
