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Fortune
Fortune
Will Daniel

Forget polls, the stock market is the most accurate predictor of presidential elections

Donald Trump Kamala Harris John Lynch Matthew Anderson Stock Market Vice President
Former President Trump and Vice President Harris shake hands on the debate stage near Trump's podium. Both are wearing dark suits. (Credit: Photo by SAUL LOEB—AFP/Getty Images)

In the wake of the latest presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, election polls are in the spotlight.

Harris now has a slight edge in many national polls. The New York Times has Harris ahead, with 49% odds compared with Trump’s 47%, while Project FiveThirtyEight and ABC give the vice president a 47% chance of winning compared with Trump’s 44.3%. However, on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction betting market, Harris and Trump are tied, with each having a 49% chance of being elected the next president of the United States. 

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