Federal forecasters are no longer just saying a strong El Niño is coming. They are saying there is a better than two in three chance this one beats every El Niño on record.
The Climate Prediction Center's most recent ENSO diagnostic discussion, issued August 13, carries an El Niño Advisory and puts a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026 to 2027 at greater than 90 percent probability. More striking is the second number: during the October through December season, the center gives a 69 percent chance of a historic event exceeding the strength of every El Nino dating back to 1950, defined as a three month value of plus 2.5 degrees Celsius or more on the relative oceanic Nino index.
