With much of the attention on the House gravitating towards the battleground states of New York and California, where Democrats are trying to push back GOP gains from 2022, a handful of races scattered around the country heading into Election Day could ultimately be the difference in which party holds the majority.
Logan Phillips, the founder of Race to the WH, has his eyes on a handful of races that he sees as potential flips, including the race in Maine’s Second District, Washington’s Third District and two swing districts the Pennsylvania, where he thinks might serve a bellwhethers.
In Maine’s Second District, Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat, is defending his seat from the Republican challenger Austin Theriault. The race is closely watched because Golden has held onto the seat since defeating the incumbent Republican in 2018, even though former President Donald Trump carried the rural Second District in both 2016 and 2020. In 2022, Golden won by six points. Golden currently leads in FiveThirtyEight’s average by 1.9 points.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez is in a similar situation in Washington’s Third, as the freshman representative is attempting to hold onto her seat a district that also supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Gluesenkamp Pérez won in 2022 by less than a point. In FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, the GOP challenger, Joe Kent, leads by a point.
In general, Phillips gives Democrats a better chance of winning the chamber than other prognosticators. He currently gives Democrats a 70% chance of winning control of the chamber while most forecasters see it as a coin flip. While he cautions that he doesn’t see them as the overwhelming favorite to win, he was also among the most accurate forecasters in 2022, projecting that Republicans would win 223 seats. The GOP ended up winning 222.
“There are plenty of strong incumbents on both sides of the aisle. The reason I view Democrats as favored is that Democrats have recruited stronger challengers,” Phillips said. “Democrats are in a stronger position to take on those incumbents.”
In Pennsylvania’s Seventh District, which stretches through the presidential battleground around Allentown, Democratic Rep. Susan Wild is defending her seat against Republican Ryan Mackenzie. In FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Wild leads by 3.9 points. However, her fortunes could swing with the presidential turnout in the state, especially in the district that has a slight partisan tilt toward Republicans.
Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is in a similar position in Pennsylvania’s Eight District around Scranton. Trump carried the district in 2020 before it swung in favor of Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro and Senator John Fetterman in 2022. Republican Rob Bresnahan is hoping the seat will swing back in 2024, though Cartwright currently leads by 2.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls.
Pennsylvania's 10th is another race to watch, according to Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. While the district leans towards Republicans, Democrats have been pushing to unseat House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry. If Democrat Janelle Stelson is successful in the race, it could bode well for Democrats in both the House and the presidential race.
Coleman is also watching Virginia’s Second and Seventh Districts as potential battlegrounds
In the Second, Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal is pushing to unseat Republican Rep. Jennifer Kiggans, who won narrowly in the urban coastal Virginia district in 2022. In the Seventh, between Richmond and Alexandria, Democrat Eugene Vindman is facing off against Republican Derrick Anderson in a seat Rep. Abigail Spanberger is leaving to run for governor.
“I'm expecting the parties to split them—we have VA-2 as Leans R and VA-7 as Leans D—but if either party sweeps both, that would probably bode well for their odds of taking the chamber,” Coleman told Salon. “In 2022, Abigail Spanberger's numbers in VA-7 being closer to Biden's than Terry McAuliffe's was a sign that the election wasn't going to be the red wave that Republicans had hoped for.”
Alongside Golden’s race in Maine, Coleman is also watching Rep. Don Bacon’s race in Nebraska’s Second. While Golden has been holding on in a district Trump carried, Bacon has been holding on as a Republican in a district Biden carried, which has also become an important source of a single electoral vote for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign.
“From the Democratic perspective, NE-2 has gone from sort of a fluke win (Obama in 2008) to now a must-win district for Harris, which probably hurts Bacon,” Coleman said. “Meanwhile, ME-2 is demographically quite Trumpy, and Golden has a better opponent now than in past cycles.”
The last bellwether district Coleman is looking at is North Carolina’s First, where Democratic Rep. Don Davis is fending off Republican Laurie Buckhout in the northeastern North Carolina District. According to Coleman, Davis “was given a tougher district this year, but seems to be doing everything right.”
“We should know the result of this seat relatively early in the night. If he holds on, that would be a promising sign for Dems,” Coleman said. “The district is also just over 40% Black by composition, so if he loses, it may be a sign that Democrats could be dogged by poor minority turnout across NC and possibly other states.
