“God, it’s brutal out here,” as Olivia Rodrigo would say.
I’m barely being facetious: Data pretty clearly suggests that, for lots of fundraising VCs right now, it is brutal out here. But there are nuances to this, as illustrated in PitchBook’s just-published mid-year update to its 2024 U.S. Venture Capital Outlook.
The report paints a picture of an industry bifurcated between the haves and the have-nots. If you’re a major, well-established firm, there’s a good chance you can fundraise pretty successfully right now. But if you’re a newer, smaller firm, odds are that it’s a struggle.
Average fund size this year is already bigger than last, hitting $153.5 million, as compared to $149.4 million in 2023. That’s because a number of major firms have closed funds well into the billions, from Andreessen Horowitz to Norwest Venture Partners. (Of the total VC dollars raised in Q1, a16z’s $7.2 billion raise accounted for a remarkable 80% of the total raised in Q1.)
But these well-established names aren’t necessarily representative of the overall sector, in which smaller, newer VCs are struggling to close funds. At the time PitchBook pulled this data, 181 funds had been closed in 2024, putting this year on pace for the lowest total in a decade, PitchBook says.
One more stat to drive home this bifurcation: General Catalyst is reportedly set to close a $6 billion fund, and if they close in time for the end of Q2, “established managers will have raised more in the first six months of this slow fundraising year than emerging managers have in total over the past 18 months,” PitchBook says.
That’s not to say everything is peachy, even if you’re at a well-established firm. Exits remain a touchy subject, and it’s hard to blame LPs for getting antsy: According to PitchBook’s report, the rate of distributions returned to LPs hasn’t been this low since 2009.
And valuations are tricky right now: AI valuations are high while ZIRP-era valuations aren’t necessarily holding. Down rounds, for example, in Q1 2024 reached their highest level since 2014, representing 17% of VC deals in that quarter. And then there’s this reality check: In Q1 of this year, flat and down rounds as a portion of VC deals hit 27.4%—a sobering decade-high.
Nevertheless, time marches on, and even sectors that have fallen out of favor are still growing. Within fintech, for instance, embedded finance is barrelling forward and by 2030 is set to become a $320 billion market.
Alright, now that I’ve laid out the data, it’s time to come clean: Olivia Rodrigo’s 2021 hit “Brutal” isn’t about VC and startups. A shock, I know—the song’s about the agonizing in-betweenness of adolescence: “Ego crush is so severe/God, it’s brutal out here.”
A piece of searing songwriting can apply to all sorts of things. So, okay, Rodrigo did make me think about VCs who aren’t at the top of the long-established, name-brand heap right now. Many are probably going through a business adolescence, complete with existential growing pains. Because, gosh, if you started a fund in the midst of the 2021 boom, the ego crush has got to be severe.
And much like adolescence, the only way out is through.
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle
Twitter: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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