Nearly six years ago, I wrote an article lambasting the smartphone industry for still trying to make folding phones happen, after years of trying and failing. It’s a gimmicky form factor, I proclaimed—bulky, fragile, and destined to go the way of the 3D TV, which was another example of manufacturers trying to push something for which there was no appreciable consumer pull.
Then, of course, Samsung and other manufacturers went on to make something of a success of the folding phone. But how wrong was I, exactly?
Last week, Counterpoint Research said the global market for folding smartphones grew 49% in the first quarter of this year, with Huawei at the forefront (Huawei's shipments of such devices were up 257% year on year.) And according to new data from the market intelligence firm TrendForce, 17.8 million foldable phones will be shipped this year.
That’s pretty impressive, but it’s also still only 1.5% of the smartphone market. However, TrendForce expects the form factor to command 4.8% by 2028, partly due to falling prices—2019’s Samsung Galaxy Fold cost a cough-worthy $1,980, but ZTE’s Nubia brand is now selling a folding phone in Japan for just $499.
Samsung is still projected to have the lion’s share of the folding phone market this year, but the Korean giant is a less dominant beast in this sub-sector than it once was, with its name on just 50.4% of shipments, down from over 80% just a couple years ago.
TrendForce has Huawei boosting its market share from 12% last year to over 30% in 2024, followed by Motorola with 6%, then a bunch of other Chinese brands. The scale of Huawei’s jump would supposedly be aided by the launch of a rumored “tri-fold” phone, which somewhat reminds me of The Onion’s profane yet prescient “Five Blades” article from a couple decades back—still the best takedown of the corporate "more is more" attitude.
And then there’s Apple’s so-called iPhone Flip, which rumormongers have been predicting for a good seven years now. The Information reported earlier this year that Cupertino has not one but two foldable iPhone prototypes knocking around. If it comes to (pardon the pun) fruition, Apple’s entry “could significantly shift market dynamics,” TrendForce’s analysts noted.
Personally, I think Apple has plenty on its plate without trying to belatedly enter yet another market that’s taken off despite its lack of presence—see: generative AI—but what do I know? I thought foldable phones were a bust and that’s clearly not the case, even if, as TrendForce points out, their repair rates are relatively high.
But I’m keen to know what you all think. Have you bought a foldable phone or would you consider doing so? What were your experiences with the form factor? And do you think Apple is likely to dive into the field? Drop me an email here.
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David Meyer
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