Though their relationship on the international calendar means the two have always had a connection, the 2023 Women’s World Cup looms particularly large over this year’s AFC Women’s Asian Cup, which kicksoff on Thursday evening when China take on Taiwan at the Mumbai Football Arena.
The tournament serves both as the forum to crown a continental champion and for World Cup qualification. Expansion from 24 to 32 nations at next year’s global showpiece event means that five of the 12 competitors in India this month will secure direct qualification, while another two will be able to book places in a 10-team intercontinental play-off for one of three more berths.
While the likes of Japan or South Korea are virtually assured of qualification under the new format, the expansion – along with the withdrawal of North Korea from this year’s cycle – serves to open the door to others. Nations such as Taiwan can dream of a first World Cup appearance since the inaugural event in 1991 or young stars such as Indonesia’s 20-year-old attacker Zahra Muzdalifah targeting a grander stage.
Automatic qualification for 2023 as one of its two co-hosts means Australian stakes in the coming tournament, superficially, have been removed; the Matildas have effectively been given a free hit at continental success. Yet in place of this short-term jeopardy looms a need to address a growing sense of unease surrounding the trajectory of the squad.
“Off the back of our Olympic campaign, coming fourth, I think there’s a little bit of expectation for us to win this Asian Cup,” said Matildas defender Ellie Carpenter. “We should win this Asian Cup. That expectation is there and it’s good for us, we want to win tournaments, we want to win trophies.”
After earning some respite from the cynicism that had marked the early stages of Tony Gustavsson’s tenure thanks to their Olympic run, a lack of progress in addressing the side’s ongoing issues in subsequent friendlies has prompted fresh concern.
The US’s visit to Australia in November for a series Gustavsson labelled a “dress rehearsal” for the 2023 World Cup final was, off the field, a fine showcase of the excitement surrounding the Matildas and a demonstration of why international women’s football is the hottest ticket in town; the 36,109 fans that packed into a sodden Stadium Australia for the first game of the series set a new standalone record in Australia.
Yet on the pitch, the reigning world champions – despite fielding an understrength side itself undergoing a generational transition – underlined that the defensive and midfield problems first exposed by Germany and the Netherlands in April remained frustratingly present at year’s end. A 3-0 defeat and 1-1 draw in the two games marked the conclusion of a 2021 calendar in which the Matildas won just three of their 16 games and had shipped 37 goals, at 2.31 a game.
It must be acknowledged that 24 of those 37 goals were conceded in friendlies in which the coaching staff expressly prioritised the pursuit of experimentation in approach, the blooding of young talent and the development of a mindset that comes with regularly taking one’s lumps against the world’s best sides.
Gustavsson reiterated that, though his sides would always play to win, results were a secondary consideration during this nuanced period and that, while not ideal, the short-term pain would pay off in the long run. Moves such as the deployment of 17-year-old Jessika Nash in the centre of defence against the US in the absence of first-choices Alanna Kennedy and Clare Polkinghorne were deemed necessary in the face of a potentially catastrophic lack of depth in youth exposed by a Football Australia study delivered just before Gustavsson’s tenure commenced.
This approach lessened the stakes associated with poor friendly performances, but it also significantly raised them for the Asian Cup. When results are placed low on a side’s hierarchy of needs, it can become difficult to determine if a side is going through the necessary pain of finding a bedrock of future success or attempting to erect a foundation on shifting sands of mistaken assumptions and misplaced confidence. To glean reassurances that it’s the former, a noticeable uptick needs to be demonstrated when, to adopt the parlance of the Swedish coach, the side flicks the switch to transition from “preparation mode” to “performance mode”.
“When we’re in preparation mode I want to make sure that as many players as possible get the opportunity to experience the Matildas’ environment,” Gustavsson said in announcing his squad for the tournament. “We’ve had 58 players and 13 debutants and that’s what we need to do when we’re in preparation mode. When we go into performance mode it’s all about what’s the best team possible to go and create results in a tournament.”
In a practical sense, the indication of this ideological transition has no better example than the return of Aivi Luik to the 23-player squad. The ever-dependable 36-year-old, who had previously retired from international football, is not a pick for the future but should help deliver results now. Gustavsson hinted when announcing his squad that India 2022 has transitioned from being a part of a broader strategy to something approaching a must-win for Football Australia.
The Matildas begin their campaign on Friday evening against Indonesia, before facing off against the Philippines on Monday and concluding group play against Thailand late on Thursday. The presence of former coach Alen Stajčić at the helm of the Philippines will add a layer of intrigue, but comfortable progression to the knockout stages should be straightforward.
From there, the spotlight will intensify as the Matildas seek to prove they are on a path that can deliver on the grandest stage.
