Ron DeSantis’ approval late Thursday of a bill banning most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy is, to many political analysts, undoubtedly good politics in a GOP presidential primary.
Some are much more skeptical about the general election.
The Florida governor’s embrace of the abortion-rights restriction is part of a broader move from DeSantis this year to stake out far-reaching positions on traditional culture war issues, including on guns and, potentially, immigration.
And it’s led some political strategists to question whether a candidate who regularly boasts about his electability as he talks to Republicans across the country might be harming himself in a general election.
“He is clearly on the right side of the primary politics,” said Mac Stipanovich, a DeSantis critic and longtime GOP operative in the state. “And he’s clearly on the wrong side of the national politics.”
In an interview, Stipanovich said he was dumbfounded by DeSantis’ desire to sign the abortion law and take other sharp-edged ideological positions this year, arguing that it’ll do little to help him defeat former President Donald Trump in a GOP primary but could cost him in a general election against Democratic President Joe Biden.
“I can’t follow his thinking,” he said. “I can’t understand what he’s doing. He’s certainly already conservative enough for today’s Republican Party.”
Other Republicans expressed optimism that, if handled correctly, DeSantis and other GOP officials could overcome public skepticism about tight abortion restrictions, especially if they forcefully and articulately defend their decision on moral grounds.
"Candidates can’t run away from their record,” said Katie Daniel, state policy director for the conservative group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. “When they run away from their own record, they’re done for.”
They also add that the potential candidate — DeSantis has said he’ll decide about his political future after the legislative session ends this spring, but is already laying the groundwork for a campaign — has already proven that he can win in Florida even while taking conservative positions on issues like transgender rights.
DeSantis won reelection last year in a landslide victory, defeating Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points in a state whose statewide races have traditionally been decided by razor-thin margins.
But DeSantis’ victory came before he signed the six-week abortion ban and, earlier this month, a permitless concealed-carry law, which eliminated the need to acquire a permit before carrying a concealed firearm.
DeSantis, who often holds news conferences to celebrate bill-signings, signed both pieces of legislation in closed-door events.
Speaking Friday morning at conservative Liberty University, the governor declined to mention the new abortion law.
Combined with his past record as governor and previous stint as a hard-charging conservative congressman, those policy stances have positioned DeSantis, should he win the GOP’s presidential nomination, as possibly its most conservative nominee in a generation, say leading conservatives.
Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, said on social issues in particular, DeSantis held more conservative positions than past Republican nominees like Mitt Romney, John McCain, Bob Dole, George H. W. Bush and possibly George W. Bush.
"He may not be indisputably the most conservative candidate on every single issue, but he is, at worst, competitive for the most conservative nominee since Ronald Reagan,” Olsen said.
Olsen emphasized that being conservative doesn’t make him unelectable, but did say that, politically speaking, the abortion bill was the “biggest risk he’s taken.”
The perception that supporting tight abortion restrictions makes for difficult politics was reinforced earlier this month during a judicial election in Wisconsin in which the liberal candidate won her race by a double-digit margin in a state where elections are often decided by slim margins.
The race, which focused heavily on abortion rights, was the latest in a series of contests since the Supreme Court revoked the constitutional right to an abortion last summer in which voters showed a strong opposition to heavy restrictions on the procedure.
Michigan, another Midwest battleground state, overwhelmingly approved a right to an abortion in its constitution during last year’s election.
And even in ruby-red Kansas, voters last year rejected a state constitutional amendment that would have allowed lawmakers to enact tight restrictions on the procedure.
The measure failed to gain much support in even some rural, conservative-leaning parts of the state. An NPR/Ipsos poll from January found that 60% of U.S. voters thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
Democrats have already signaled that they think the governor’s record on abortion, guns, and other issues will be a major focus of their attacks against him, should he become the GOP’s presidential nominee.
“He is so much more conservative than anyone we’ve ever had as a viable nominee from the Republican Party,” said Celinda Lake, who was Biden’s pollster in 2020.
Lake drew a political distinction between DeSantis and Donald Trump.
The former president, she said, had hurt himself with voters mostly because of his personal problems, even as many voters continued to profess support for his policies.
But DeSantis is now introducing himself to the country at a time when liberals can define him as an extreme culture warrior, she added, on issues like abortion rights and gun control.
“I’ve honestly become puzzled about why he’s taken this approach,” Lake said.
On his nationwide book tour, the governor has touted his electoral success in Florida, boasting that he had left Democrats for dead in his home state after an election in which they did not win a single statewide race.
Electability is central to DeSantis’ appeal for some Republicans, who are wary about renominating Trump after he lost the 2020 election.
The governor often talks about how he was able to win despite taking positions once thought to be polarizing.
And, indeed, some conservatives argue that GOP politicians have embraced tight abortion restrictions and still managed to win big victories.
DeSantis himself easily won reelection last year, in fact, even after signing a 15-week ban. And other Republicans, including Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, also won their races in 2022 after signing legislation that enacted deep restrictions.
Pro-life advocates say candidates need to take on the issue, not shying away from a fight against Democrats eager to focus on it. “GOP pro-life candidates win in competitive races if they define their opponents as abortion extremists who support abortion on demand with NO limits, and contrast that with a clearly defined pro-life position centered around consensus such as pain-capable or heartbeat limits,” an April memo from SBA Pro-Life America said.
