Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula 53–47 in Brazil's First Post-Election Survey — and Three More Polls Drop This Week

Brazil's right-wing senator and Liberal Party (PL) presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro acknowledges supporters during a rally in Goiania, Goias state, Brazil, on October 6, 2026. Right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro heads into Brazil's October 25 presidential runoff in a position of strength and with the backing of US President Donald Trump, while President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva faces an uphill battle to stage a comeback. (Credit: Photo by Sergio Lima / AFP via Getty Images)

The October 4 first-round result delivered more than a ballot tally — it reshuffled the entire race. The first post-election poll measuring Brazilian runoff intentions, released Thursday morning by PoderData/Aya, places Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 53% of valid voting intentions against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 47% — a six-point margin that was essentially nonexistent one week earlier. The second round takes place on October 25.

The release lands at the precise moment Brazil's polling calendar accelerates. Thursday's PoderData/Aya reading is the first of at least four national surveys scheduled to publish within 48 hours, opening what may prove to be the most data-dense week of the entire 2026 campaign. With 17 days separating today from the decisive vote, Lula enters the sprint trailing for the first time.