The 2023 NFL draft is just a few weeks away, so it’s time to do one last fantasy “mock” draft before the rookies have their names called in Kansas City. After all, there’s already been a ton of player movement via free agency and offseason trades, so plenty of draft values have been altered, good or bad, as a result.
As a result, let’s get into my second offseason one-man, five-round mock draft for 2023. One thing you’ll notice in the results is that this is unlike most mocks I’ve done in the past. With some of the top running backs getting older and an influx of good, young wideouts in the league, the balance of power has shifted to the latter position. I’ve also included six quarterbacks in the first five rounds, which is a far cry from what I’ve done lately (and really, for most of my time as an analyst).
This mock includes 12 fantasy “teams” and is based on a PPR scoring system. Each team used different “strategies” with their first three overall picks so you can see how the roster is built at the top. Notice, wideouts have passed runners in volume.
Teams 1, 3: Wide receiver, quarterback, running back
Teams 2: Running back, wide receiver, wide receiver
Team 4, 12: Wide receiver, running back, wide receiver
Team 5: Running back, wide receiver, running back
Team 6: Wide receiver, wide receiver, running back
Team 7, 10: Running back, running back, wide receiver
Team 8: Running back, wide receiver, quarterback
Team 9: Tight end, wide receiver, running back
Team 11: Wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver
Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports
ROUND 1
1.1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
1.2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
1.3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
1.4. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
1.5. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
1.6. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
1.7. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
1.8. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
1.9. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
1.10. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
1.11. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
1.12. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Notes: I’m a running backs truther, but even I see Jefferson is the top overall pick. The overall shift to drafting more wide receivers is also evident, as half of the picks came at the position including four of the first six overall. McCaffrey, my top running back, was the No. 2 back in 2022. He’ll continue to thrive in San Francisco’s runner friendly offense. Ekeler was the top-scoring running back in fantasy football, and he’s the lone player at the position to score 300-plus points in each of the last two years. But where will he play in 2023 and beyond? Stay tuned. Chase missed five games but was fourth in points-per-game average among wideouts. Kupp averaged 22.4 points for the Rams and was on pace to score 380.5 points before he was injured and missed the final eight games. That total would have put him ahead of Jefferson for the lead at wide receiver. Hill finished second in points and proved he didn’t need Patrick Mahomes to remain a stud in fantasy land.
Barkley has been franchised by the Giants, but he hasn’t signed his tag just yet. I’m assuming he will. Taylor was a massive disappointment in 2022, finishing outside of the top 30 backs after being the top overall pick in drafts. Still, he’s just 23 and should rebound. I’m not saying I would draft Kelce in Round 1, but he’s so much better than every other tight end in the league that he’ll be a top-10 pick in most leagues. Henry finished as the RB4 last season, but he’s had a ton of carries in his career and will be heading into his age-29 season. Adams and Diggs are top five players among wideouts and will be late first-rounders in most 12-teamers.
ROUND 2
2.13. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
2.14. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
2.15. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
2.16. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
2.17. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
2.18. Bijan Robinson, RB, TBD
2.19. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
2.20. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
2.21. Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
2.22. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
2.23. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
2.24. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Notes: Six more wideouts came off the board in this round, compared to a mere four running backs. Chubb did see his value rise though, as the Browns won’t bring back Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacobs, like Barkley, has been franchised but hasn’t signed his tag. Brown and Lamb are both coming off career best years and will be surefire top 20 picks. St. Brown has moved up after posting his second big fantasy season, and Wilson should shine when the Jets (finally) acquire Aaron Rodgers. I’m projecting Robinson to land with a team that makes him a featured back, making him a top 20 pick in most fantasy redrafts. He'll be the top pick in most dynasty leagues too.
Pollard’s draft stock rises a bit with the release of Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, but the Cowboys should add more depth at the position than just Ronald Jones. Hopkins could be traded or released by Arizona in the next few weeks, but for now he’ll remain a low-end No. 1 wideout. I’m hoping he lands with the Chiefs. I have two quarterbacks, Allen and Mahomes, coming off the board in Round 2.
Times are changing, folks.
Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports
ROUND 3
3.25. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
3.26. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
3.27. Ken Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
3.28. DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
3.29. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
3.30. Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
3.31. DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
3.32. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
3.33. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
3.34. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
3.35. Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
3.36. Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
Notes: This round features several good, young running backs who have mid-RB1 upside. Stevenson was the RB7 this past season, and Damien Harris signed with Buffalo. New England did add James Robinson, though. Walker could become a top-notch back as he enters his second season, and Etienne has top-12 potential at his position in an explosive Jaguars offense. If he’s recovered from a torn ACL in time for Week 1, Hall will be a valuable asset and could move up in future mocks.
Hurts had a career season in 2022 and belongs in the top 36 moving forward. He could be the first field general picked in many drafts. Harris fell from the ranks of the first round after a sophomore season that saw him average a modest 3.8 yards per rush and post just 41 catches. The final three picks were all wide receivers – Allen, Samuel and Cooper – all of whom have WR1 potential in their offenses.
ROUND 4
4.37. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
4.38. Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
4.39. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
4.40. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
4.41. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
4.42. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
4.43. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
4.44. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
4.45. Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
4.46. Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
4.47. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, TBD
4.48. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Notes: The round starts with Mixon, who is tough to rank right now because of his off-field issues. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals moved on from him. Andrews remains the No. 2 tight end in fantasy football, but the status of Lamar Jackson with the Ravens has him ranked lower than in my previous mock. Burrow is now locked in as a top-50 pick and he’s the consensus No. 4 fantasy quarterback. Cook saw his yards per rush average decline a season ago, and he’s more of a risk heading into his age-28 season. Olave will play alongside Michael Thomas, but he’s still a top-50 pick. Pittman Jr. will have a new quarterback under center, possibly a rookie otherwise Gardner Minshew, but he’ll be a No. 2 or flex option.
Pierce averaged almost 13 points per game as a rookie and should retain the top spot on the depth chart in Houston under new coach DeMeco Ryans. The addition of Devin Singletary could hurt his ceiling, though. Gibbs is the second rookie off the board, but his true value won’t be known until after the NFL draft. Hockenson, who was the TE2 last season, is now a top 50 overall pick at a weak position.
Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports
ROUND 5
5.49. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
5.50. Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5.51. James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
5.52. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
5.53. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
5.54. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5.55. Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
5.56. D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
5.57. DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
5.58. Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
5.59. Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
5.60. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Notes: Kamara, who is a declining fantasy player and could be facing a suspension, has fallen all the way down to the fifth round after being a top 20 pick most of his career. You could argue that newly signed Jamaal Williams is a better fantasy option since he’ll be cheaper. Swift has also fallen, as the Lions added David Montgomery as a free agent. Jackson will remain a prominent fantasy quarterback in drafts, but where he lands (if it’s not in Baltimore) will be a factor. Godwin and Evans are tougher to rank after Tom Brady’s retirement, but both have seen a decline in value regardless. Whether it’s Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, the downgrade at quarterback is massive.
Moore has moved into the top 60 now that he’s been traded to Chicago, and his new quarterback, Fields, is in that mix. Watson will be a No. 2 wideout or flex in Green Bay, assuming the team doesn’t add another wideout. He’ll also likely be catching passes from Jordan Love. Williams remains a question coming off a knee injury, so he could move up or down in future mocks based on status updates.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business to help you win a fantasy championship!
