The last time the men’s Final Four was composed entirely of teams from the top-three seed lines was way back in 2009. While overall, 74% of Final Four teams since 1985 have been a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed, (per BracketOdds), that still means more than a quarter come from elsewhere. Figuring out who that’s going to be every year (often, it’s just one of the four teams) can be like finding a needle in a haystack—after all, who saw No. 11–seed UCLA coming a year ago? Or No. 11 Loyola Chicago in 2018? Still, we’re going to give it our best shot. Here are five teams seeded No. 4 or lower who could make the trip to New Orleans, plus three more we considered.
Iowa (No. 5 seed, Midwest Region)
This is a pretty obvious sleeper pick after Iowa won the Big Ten tournament, but anyone paying a close eye over the last month could have already seen the dark-horse label coming. In a rare reversal of how Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes teams have historically tended to fade down the stretch, this one has only gotten stronger. Iowa has lost just twice since the calendar hit February, and its offense is operating at a ridiculously high level right now. According to T-Rank’s power rating, the Hawkeyes have been the No. 2 team in the country since Feb. 1, behind only Gonzaga.
