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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent

Five charts that explain the global economic outlook for 2026

Donald Trump on a TV screen with stock market data in the background
Global GDP growth is forecast to moderate in 2026 amid the hit to international trade from Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

The global economy proved to be more resilient in 2025 than had been feared, despite severe headwinds that ranged from Donald Trump’s trade war to geopolitical tensions and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Entering the new year, the hope is that the worst of the recent inflation shock has passed, as the world’s most powerful central banks lower interest rates. However, the pre-Covid age of rock-bottom borrowing costs is a distant memory, global growth is slowing and conditions remain fragile.

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