SCOTLAND would vote to become independent from the UK if a second referendum were held tomorrow, according to the first poll on the issue of Andy Burnham’s tenure.
A survey of 1020 Scottish voters aged 16 or over, conducted exclusively for The National, found that 48% of people said they would vote Yes in a second referendum, while 45% said they would vote No.
With the 7% of people who said they did not know how they would vote removed, the poll found that a second referendum would see Scotland vote to become independent by 52% to 48%.
The figures are the first from a Find Out Now poll conducted from August 4-10. The National will be publishing further results – including on routes to independence, perceptions of Prime Minister Burnham in Scotland, and the rise of the far right – through this week.
The new Prime Minister took office in July, and almost immediately ruled out discussions on a second independence referendum. In a meeting with First Minister John Swinney, Burnham said that such a vote was “off limits”.
Elsewhere, Burnham has enjoyed a bounce in UK-wide polls.
A survey of 5000 voters published over the weekend found that his Labour party had taken a nine-point lead over Reform UK, who had led in every poll for 16 months running. Labour were on 27% to Reform’s 18%.
That survey, conducted for Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft’s polling firm from July 30-August 3, also found that the Tories had jumped into second place with 23% of the vote, while the Greens were closing in on Reform with 15%.
If those vote percentages played out in an election, Labour would return 309 MPs – 17 short of an outright majority, according to the Electoral Calculus seat projection tool. The Tories would be the second largest party, with 192 seats, while Reform remain behind the LibDems, with 31 seats to Ed Davey’s party’s 51.
The Greens and the SNP were projected to tie on 22 seats.
Such a hung parliament could open an opportunity to leverage a deal for a second independence referendum out of the UK Government, SNP MP Lara Bird has suggested.
You can read the rest of the exclusive Scotland polling in The National this week.
