FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to generate hurricane conditions in portions of Puerto Rico on Sunday, and possibly across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Heavy rains were forecast for the islands Saturday, and into the Dominican Republic to the west of Puerto Rico on Sunday, according to an 11 a.m. update by the National Weather Service.
The storm could reach Category 1 hurricane strength, which means winds of at least 74 mph, by Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. At that point, the storm’s center is expected to be somewhere in a broad area that encompasses the southern Bahamas. It is considered unlikely to threaten Florida, according to the weather service.
It’s too early to say if the storm could threaten the southeastern United States, said Jamie Rhome, acting director of the National Hurricane Center.
“For those of you in the southeastern United States, it is way, way, way too early to speculate about any possible impacts, anything that happens beyond this point is wild speculation,” he said in a Facebook Live presentation, pointing at edge of the hurricane center’s five-day forecast map, which extended to the Bahamas. “So much too early to say anything about the southeastern United States, so stay tuned for that.”
Flash and urban flooding with mudslides are expected in higher terrain, “particularly in Puerto Rico,” forecasters said.
The storm’s top wind speed has remained unchanged for the past several hours. At 11 a.m. Saturday, the storm was producing top winds of 60 mph, with its center located about 125 miles west of Guadeloupe and 135 miles southeast of St. Croix in the Caribbean.
Fiona was moving west at a slightly reduced speed from 13 mph to 8 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Fiona’s tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
Fiona would be the third hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, which so far has been less active than forecasters predicted.
The hurricane center said the storm should strengthen as it enters an area of increased humidity and lower wind shear, the high-level winds that can disrupt a storm’s structure.
“Fiona could be very near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic,” the hurricane center said. “The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona’s circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn’t have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast period.”
The center of the storm is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today through Sunday, and approach the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.
Forecasters also are tracking two new disturbances. As of 8 a.m. Saturday, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic are associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave. Some slow development of this system is possible during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly northwestward to northward.
A second disturbance, a frontal low, in the western Atlantic located just to the northeast of Bermuda has an elongated circulation and continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center. Development of this system into a tropical cyclone is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to move slowly east-southeastward and then become nearly stationary over the next day or two.
It’s now past the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season with five previous named storms before Fiona. AccuWeather notes that “not a single hurricane has come within striking distance of the East Coast or Gulf Coast” this season.
The next storm to form would be Gaston.
“The Atlantic hurricane season’s slow pace so far in 2022 has ... led to a startling disparity in the number of mainland U.S. landfalls through mid-September compared to the last two years,” The Weather Channel reported.
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.
“The lack of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic has been particularly noticeable considering recent hyperactive hurricane seasons with many impacts to the U.S. and Caribbean. Even though the season overall may end up near average or even slightly below average, it only takes one storm to threaten lives and create a major disaster,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
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