The playoff battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans is one of criminally underrated teams.
Those Bengals won 10 games, sweeping Pittsburgh and Baltimore, beating Kansas City and playing Green Bay within three points in an overtime loss. They have an elite passer, cast of weapons around him and a strong defense.
Those Titans won 12 games while getting just eight games from MVP-contending running back Derrick Henry. They boast an elite defense, overcame contenders like Buffalo and Kansas City and also hurdled one of the league’s more notable cases of the injury bug.
So who wins Saturday’s divisional round showdown?
From a far-out view, the Titans would assuredly like to ride Henry all game in an effort to keep Joe Burrow and his offense off the field. Because if Burrow (525, 446 and 244 yards with 10 TDs and no INTs over his last three) gets the Bengals a lead, the Titans just aren’t equipped to play catchup.
And that’s a strategy that could work. The Bengals have one of the best nosetackles in football with D.J. Reader, but Josh Tupou was dealing with an injury this week and other interior depth has taken a hit.
But realistically? One team boasts an elite running back. The other, an elite quarterback. In predicting almost any NFL game — but especially the playoffs — quarterback is more important than anything else.
The Titans have found some inexplicable way to keep winning games this year amid the adversity, but Ryan Tannehill doesn’t pass the eye test with his 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He’s also just 2-2 in playoff games.
Burrow, on the other hand, has seemed ahead of schedule in his development given the injury last year. He’s got all of his mobility back, which has helped him navigate messy pockets well and he’s been uncannily accurate all over the field.
And that seems like the key — the Titans are guaranteed to get pressure. They have some elite names like Jeffrey Simmons going against a so-so offensive line. But so did the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), Chiefs (Chris Jones) and others. Burrow’s been elite regardless and no defense, regardless of scheme or approach, has been able to stop Ja’Marr Chase.
It’s also gone a little underrated that the Bengals defense largely shutters an opposing offense’s top weapons. Tyreek Hill had 40 receiving yards. Hunter Renfrow, 58. Julio Jones-A.J. Brown can be scary, but it’s not the biggest threat the unit has faced over the last month or so.
When comparing the two teams, the Bengals arguably have the best interior defender (Reader), outright pass-rusher (Trey Hendrickson) and cast of wide receivers.
And most important of all — the better quarterback.
In a quarterback-driven league, the Bengals will win because of their quarterback, whereas the Titans have to win in spite of their quarterback.
Burrow’s the reason the Bengals are here and he’ll be the reason they win and advance to the AFC title game, so long as his poise and accuracy don’t suddenly take a nosedive. If he can get the Bengals out to an early lead, the Titans don’t have the ammo to keep pace.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Titans 21
