The Cincinnati Bengals face a must-win against the New England Patriots on Christmas Eve.
Maybe not technically, but by their own standards, at least. The Bengals locked in a playoff berth on Thursday night when the Jaguars beat the Jets, though Joe Burrow and Co. have said they want to win out and stay in contention for the top seed in the AFC.
That means turning around on a short week and beating 7-7 New England, a team that has lost three of its last four, last week losing on one of the worst game-ending plays of all time. The team’s last win, Week 14, came against four-win Arizona.
Not to suggest it will be easy in the freezing cold. The Patriots might struggle offensively, but they only cough up 19.2 points per game and the defense (owners of five touchdowns, tied for league lead) was one of the big things Burrow praised all week.
Luckily for Burrow, his offensive line starting five has the most snaps together of any unit in the NFL this year and it shows in the consistently strong play. His cast of weapons, including all three wideouts and running backs, is healthy. The only exception is tight end Hayden Hurst, who was ruled out late in the week after some optimism he would play.
Funnily enough, one could argue its defense, not offense, that remains the Cincinnati strong point. The unit will get star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson back this week and he’ll play through a broken wrist while Sam Hubbard misses time.
The Patriots don’t boast the most intimidating offense, though. Mac Jones has created something of a quarterback conversation in Foxboro with his seven touchdowns and eight interceptions while averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt over 11 games. The Rhamondre Stevenson-led running game is strong, but that’s not usually a major red flag for Hendrickson’s unit.
Maybe one of the biggest swings in this game comes on the injury sheet. For the Patriots, Stevenson is questionable. A long-snapper just went to injured reserve. Cornerback Jalen Mills is out. Fellow corners Jonathan Jones and Jack Jones are questionable. Wideout DeVante Parker is out.
Normally, we would point out that the Pats defense just held elite Raiders wideout Davante Adams to four catches for 28 yards, but with that injury sheet, it’s hard to imagine they fully contain Ja’Marr Chase and Co. this late in the year.
And that’s the bigger point in predicting this one — it’s late in the year. It’s relevant to write that the Patriots still have playoff hopes and something to play for on a holiday. But the injury sheet and performances lately very much suggest a team that’s eyeballing the end of the season, or so to speak.
The Bengals are playing like the best team in the league right now and barring they come out flat like they did in the first half against Tampa Bay (a game they won anyway), this one should be a routine win.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Patriots 13
