We’re about two hours out from kickoff in New England. The Detroit Lions remain underdogs to the Patriots for Week 5, but it’s a close spread — as it should be.
In my initial prediction for the game over at RealGM, I did not expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to play for Detroit. That’s reflected in the final line here,
– Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-3.5): Detroit gets its first shot at vengeance against former coach Matt Patricia, who spearheaded the descent into rebuilding hell that Dan Campbell is trying to lead the Lions out of, with mixed results. The Lions have the NFL’s best scoring offense but the league’s worst scoring defense. I expect declines from the banged-up Lions in both points and points allowed, and for Jared Goff to find Tom Kennedy for a game-winning 2-point conversion late.
Lions 27, Patriots 26
St. Brown creates additional problems for the Patriots young secondary. New England has talent back there in rookie Jack Jones, with Kyle Dugger emerging in his third season as a great all-around safety. But St. Brown’s ability to quickly get open and into the intermediate route range creates all sorts of problems for the Patriots, who have the slowest LB corps in the league (on purpose!).
As long as the Lions offensive tackles win the war against Patriots EDGEs Matt Judon and Deatrich Wise, it should be a good day for Jared Goff. The run game with Jamaal Williams is reliable, and last week’s record-setting performance by TE T.J. Hockenson only builds confidence.
New England is going to score, no doubt about it. Rookie QB Bailey Zappe is surgically accurate. The Patriots have a solid OL and effective run game, and that will be difficult for the Lions to stop. But the Lions have the quick-strike ability that the 1-3 Patriots just haven’t shown to this point, certainly not with a rookie QB making his first career start.
Zappe should be good. Goff and the Lion should be a little better. Lions 33, Patriots 30
