End of day summary …
We will shortly be wrapping up today’s live blog. Here are the headlines …
Keir Starmer is under pressure to suspend councillors who attended a meeting in Hyndburn over claims that they failed to call out antisemitic remarks by Azhar Ali, the former Labour candidate for the Rochdale byelection. On Tuesday, Labour suspended Graham Jones, the candidate for Hyndburn in Lancashire, less than 24 hours after the party withdrew its support from Ali.
Former Conservative home secretary and chancellor Kenneth Clarke has told the House of Lords that Rishi Sunak’s government is setting an “extremely dangerous precedent” and he hopes the Rwanda bill will be struck down as unconstitutional. The Lords were debating a series of proposed amendments. John Randall, former Conservative minister, warned his party “not be so dogmatic that we haven’t got an inch of humanity”. Baroness Butler-Sloss told peers victims of modern slavery and human trafficking should be protected from removal to Rwanda
The UK’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly held steady at 4% in January despite rising energy bills adding to the pressure on households, raising the chances of a cut in interest rates sooner than anticipated. Offering consumers some respite amid the cost of living crisis, the latest figures showed food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell at a monthly rate of 0.4% in January – the first monthly decline since May 2021.
The governor of the Bank of England has said the UK economy is beginning to pick up. Sunak has told the media today that he absolutely believes “the economy has turned the corner” while convening the first meeting of his 2024 Business Council.
The average UK house price fell by around £4,000 in the 12 months to December 2023, according to official figures, although the change was unevenly distributed among the nations. The private rental market saw large cost increases for tenants. The ONS said private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 6.2% in the 12 months to January 2024.
Train drivers at five rail operators have voted to continue taking strike action for another six months. Mick Whelan, general secretary of Aslef said “Our members have voted, time and again, for strikes. That’s why Mark Harper, the transport secretary, is being disingenuous when he says that offer should have been put to members.”
The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) regulator has launched an investigation into the performance of National Highways in England.
Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock has endorsed Vaughan Gething as his choice for Labour leader in Wales.
Voters will go to the polls tomorrow in the Kingswood and Wellingborough byelections, with Labour hoping to gain two seats from the Conservatives.
Thank you so much for sticking with the blog today and for your comments. I do try and read them all and often find them helpful – especially if you have spotted some ambiguous wording or typos. I will be with you again tomorrow from 9am-ish, when there will be byelections on, and so by law I will have to be on my best behaviour.
Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock has written for the Mirror today to endorse Vaughan Gething as his choice for Labour leader in Wales.
Noting Gething’s previous role as health minister, Kinnock says:
He was tested under the spotlight of our biggest public health emergency for a century and the biggest crisis Britain has experienced since the second world war. Vaughan’s qualities and values stem from his democratic socialism, his long history of trade unionism and his strong character.
Painting the next general election as “a real opportunity to finally oust the Tories after 14, long, painful years”, Kinnock goes on to say “Vaughan is the right candidate to spearhead that fight in Wales and help Keir Starmer become prime minister.”
Gething is standing against Jeremy Miles to succeed Mark Drakeford as first minister of Wales and Labour leader in the country.
The finance committee of the Northern Ireland assembly is meeting in Stormont, amid some rows about the deal presented by the UK government for funding which requires Northern Ireland to raise its own additional revenue. The SDLP’s Matthew O’Toole is chair of the newly reconstituted committee, and his party have said the key questions are:
What has been agreed with the British government on revenue raising and what will it cost families?
Where is the plan to rescue public services?
When will public sector workers get a pay rise?
The first Finance Committee session is underway. Key questions from the Opposition:
— The SDLP (@SDLPlive) February 14, 2024
What has been agreed with the British Government on revenue raising and what will it cost families?
Where is the plan to rescue public services?
When will public sector workers get a pay rise? pic.twitter.com/C28k5dChOL
There is a live stream of the proceedings here, although the first bit of the session was behind closed doors.
Ken Clarke: government setting 'extremely dangerous precedent' with 'unconstitutional' Rwanda bill
Former Conservative home secretary and chancellor Kenneth Clarke has told the House of Lords that Rishi Sunak’s government is setting an “extremely dangerous precedent” and he hopes the Rwanda bill will be struck down as unconstitutional.
He told peers during a second day of committee debate about proposed amendments to the bill:
I continue to be completely flabbergasted by the constitutional implications of a government acting in this way.
I would ask the minister whether he has been able to find any precedent for this occurring, has any government in a similar situation ever decided to reverse any legal defeat by just passing legislation saying the facts are what we say they are, not the facts that the supreme court has found on the evidence? I think it’s unlikely.
For that reason, I think it’s an extremely dangerous precedent. I very much hope that there will be a legal challenge which will enable the supreme court to strike it down as unconstitutional in due course, but the better step would be for parliament not to pass the legislation in the first place.
Updated
Governor of Bank of England: signs of 'beginning of a pick-up' in the economy.
The governor of the Bank of England has said the UK economy is beginning to pick up. Speaking to the House of Lords economic affairs committee, PA Media reports Andrew Bailey told peers:
We will find out whether we had a so-called technical recession or not, depending on what the fourth quarter number is.
In our February monetary policy report it was in the balance – we didn’t have a recession in the forecast, but it is at best flat, in the view we took. It wouldn’t take much to tip it either way, frankly.
Going forward, and I think this is in some ways more significant, we are now seeing some signs of the beginning of a pick-up in some of the surveys, for instance … we’ve got a modest pick-up this year which continues thereafter.
A “technical recession” is when there are two quarters of consecutive negative growth in GDP, however some economists and statisticians argue the term is effectively meaningless, since growth by 0.1% or shrinking by 0.1% are virtually indistinguishable from flat-lining.
Earlier today prime minister Rishi Sunak told business leaders “I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner and we’re now pointing in the right direction.” [See 10.27am GMT]
Local journalist Kate Cronin from the Northamptonshire Telegraph appeared on BBC Radio Northampton this morning to talk about the campaign in Wellingborough. She made the point that with the recall of Peter Bone, the campaign had effectively been running since October and local journalists were “really glad to be on the home straight now”.
Cronin said it felt like the “eyes of the country” have been on Wellingborough, with a stream of visits to Labour candidate Gen Kitchen – “I think she’s had pretty much one MP visit every day” – and “the Reform candidate has had loads and loads of visitors” including Kate Hoey.
Cronin said that the Conservatives hadn’t had as many high profile visits – Rishi Sunak hasn’t been, unlike Keir Starmer – but that the Tories had “loads and loads of grassroots campaigners on the ground, trying to make up for that.”
She said that some of the local population had found it a little overwhelming, telling the BBC:
I think it’s been quite a lot for them. I know people who’ve been sort of venturing into the town centre, a bit tired of being accosted by a national newspaper journalist to ask him how they’re going to vote. But I think people ultimately are quite enjoying it because there’s just been so much coverage, and it’s often nice to have that focus on your area. So you can really shout about the things that you think are right or wrong.
Cronin felt it had been beneficial for the area, saying “it’s been really nice to … sort of shout about how great our area is, because I don’t think a lot of people know a lot about Northamptonshire, and we’re not that great about standing up and you know, telling people about how wonderful it is to live here and work here.”
She also gave a little bit of insight into what it is like covering the campaign, saying:
It’s going to be a nightmare for all of us, four of us from the Northants Telegraph are going to be covering the count. We’ve all got young children, it’s half term this week. So we’re going to be there from about nine o’clock tomorrow night. All night. We are praying there’s no recount.
And then we’ve all got to work on Friday. So I’m going to court on Friday, I’ve got a really big case to cover on Friday and then I’m going back up to my family on Saturday to see Preston North End beat Blackburn Rovers at Deepdale.
And for your info, on Friday we will have an early live blog with me to cover the reaction to the results, which we are expecting about 4am. I will be here from about 7am.
It became clear over the last couple of days that if I ever get the opportunity to include a picture of a ship in a live blog, I will. On Monday it was Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales actually setting sail from Portsmouth, and on Tuesday it was the Glen Sannox ferry on its first sea trials in Glasgow.
It turns out this is also true if I get the opportunity to post a picture of a giant tortoise, because the St Helena government has issued a photograph of speaker of the House of Commons Lindsay Hoyle meeting Jonathan the tortoise, who is believed to be the oldest tortoise ever recorded. And the photo is so good I thought you would all enjoy it.
PA Media reports Hoyle used the parliamentary recess to visit the south Atlantic island and UK overseas territory. Jonathan is thought to have hatched in 1832.
Hoyle is quoted as saying “As a massive animal lover, and owner of a three-stone tortoise, I have been really looking forward to meeting Jonathan and giving him the Guinness World Record for being the oldest recorded tortoise.”
While on St Helena the speaker also met with governor Nigel Phillips.
I had some coverage of the Kingswood byelection campaign earlier [See 13.35 GMT]. Wellingborough is the other constituency where people will be going to the polls tomorrow.
For the FT Lucy Fisher has visited the constituency, and writes:
Only a clutch of Conservative front- or backbenchers have appeared on the campaign trail, and even fewer have advertised their presence on social media. The Conservatives’ “air war” has also been quieter: the party’s candidate Helen Harrison last posted on X on January 11, and national media requests to interview her have been rejected.
Reform UK insiders believe they will be boosted by the “low visibility” Conservative campaign, as they hope to clinch at least 10 per cent of the vote on Thursday.
Ben Habib, its candidate in Wellingborough, said Labour and the Tories were viewed as “shades of grey” among locals. He said he had been buoyed by “lots of waves and lots of tooting of horns” when driving the party’s battle bus around the constituency.
Scott Miller, 54, the owner of a barbershop in Rushden, [said]. “My whole life I’ve voted Conservative, but I’m afraid this time for the by-election, I’m voting Reform,” he said, accusing Sunak of being “spineless”. He was among several local voters who said they had become interested in the party after watching right-leaning broadcaster GB News.
ITV News Anglia have managed to get some rare words out of the Conservative candidate Harrison. Her partner Peter Bone has been campaigning alongside her, despite the fact that the byelection is happening after he was recalled from parliament by constituents in disgrace. Harrison told ITV:
When I’m out on the doorstep with Peter … we get a really warm reception. But people know that I’m a different person as well. Peter and I have campaigned on so many things together, but I’m Helen Harrison.
I’m a local person, I come from a health background, all my life I’ve given to helping other people so I bring a different perspective and that’s what people are going to get locally.
John Randall, a former Conservative minister, has warned his party “not be so dogmatic that we haven’t got an inch of humanity” over the Rwanda deportation bill.
Supporting an amendment in the House of Lords which would add exceptions for people who had served in the British armed forces and then sought refugee status in the UK, he said:
I’ve always been proud of this country, but if we reject looking after those who have put their lives at risk and many have suffered the ultimate sacrifice – if we do not allow them this, then I’m afraid I will not be so proud of this country, I will not be so proud of the party that I’m in. We must show humanity if we can call ourselves British.
Randall is chairman of the Human Trafficking Foundation
Former diplomat David Hannay added in front of peers that “our honour is at stake” in the way the UK deals with Afghan refugees who have served in the British armed forces or helped them.
Back on the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill debate in the House of Lords for a moment, and Graham Stirrup, former senior Royal Air Force commander and chief of defence staff, has argued in favour of an amendment which would exclude soldiers from foreign countries who have fought for the UK from being deported to Rwanda.
He told the unelected second chamber:
If global Britain is to be effective in the world, it will need to form partnerships with and gain support from people in all sorts of different parts of that world, often in very difficult and dangerous parts of that world.
In order to garner such support, it will need to be seen as trustworthy. How trustworthy does anybody think we will be seen if we have taken those who have already served us so faithfully in such difficult circumstances and sent them to Rwanda?
So for those who are not swayed by a sense of moral obligation, I ask you to consider the future effectiveness and safety of the men and women of our armed forces who are sent out to do such difficult and dangerous things in these parts of the world.
If you are interested in some local voices from the Kingswood constituency, which has a byelection tomorrow, then the Bristol Cable yesterday published this short 16 minute podcast where they spoke to people in the area, particularly around the high street, including one resident who said:
It’s a bit of a dump, and it’s got worse. It’s all charity shops. There’s the supermarket but that’s it. It’s rubbish. There needs to be something to bring people in … more interesting than sandwich shops and takeaways. They’re supposed to be rebuilding the entire centre. They keep talking about it and never doing it.
Local business owner Tony Tardio said:
The footfall isn’t as great as it used to be. When I first started, there used to be a market next door … and on a Thursday and Saturday the place would be heaving – the car park would be full. I’m still open, but I’m doing half of what I was doing about 12 years ago. It’s a throwaway society, so for me personally, I don’t think the good old days will come back. I’ve got to be happy with it, just ticking over and making a moderate living.
In the New Statesman, Anoosh Chakelian has also written a piece about the Kingswood byelection. She writes:
With a no-longer-comfortable Conservative majority of 11,220, it’s a tough seat for any politician to crack. “Speaking to the women [in the constituency], they’re doing exactly the same sort of jobs that my mum did – like shop work, dinner ladies, cleaners, that sort of job, but they are a lot poorer,” Damien Egan [Labour’s candidate] observed. “People are now going to foodbanks.”
Also top of voters’ minds are the lack of NHS dental places in the Bristol area, rising mortgage payments, and anti-social behaviour. Shoplifting is on the up, and there has been a spree of stabbings in Bristol.
Chakelian had less luck getting quotes from the Conservative candidate attempting to defend Chris Skidmore’s seat, noting that she “waited outside the constituency HQ, which bore nothing but frosted glass and a small printed A4 ‘closed’ sign. The lights were on but no one answered, and over about an hour there was no sign of the usual coming-and-going of stoic activists in anoraks clutching clipboards.”
She writes that “Their candidate, a local called Sam Bromiley, appears to be running a one-issue campaign against South Gloucestershire Council’s plans to build 8,000-odd houses on greenfield land.”
Earlier this week the Conservative government announced a series of proposed changes to the planning system to encourage developers to build more homes.
I did promise at the outset of today to avoid shoehorning in Valentine’s day references, left, right and centre-left, but I couldn’t make the promise apply to anybody else.
The Conservatives have launched a series of social media posts which they have dubbed the “Starmer Sutra”, attempting to illustrate various positions that the Labour leader has taken.
The Starmer Sutra is the perfect Valentine’s Day gift for the politically promiscuous.
— Conservatives (@Conservatives) February 14, 2024
Written by the father of u-turns, this is the definitive how-to guide on flip-flopping into different positions on anything.
*Only available in paperback and spineless editions* pic.twitter.com/Lb3e1fr07k
Labour, meanwhile, are sending out 17,000 Valentine’s cards in the Kingswood constituency campaigning for Damien Egan.
The government is “undermining” the UK’s modern slavery protections with the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill, a Conservative former minister has claimed.
John Gummer, a Tory former environment secretary who sits in the House of Lords as Lord Deben, was speaking in favour of a series of amendments to the Bill aimed at ensuring that Rwanda is not conclusively considered a safe country for unaccompanied children, and victims of modern slavery and human trafficking.
Lord Deben told peers:
I must say I am a bit tired of having to remind this government of what it means to be a Conservative. I have had to do that earlier on, on the single market, and I am now doing it on this.
We have a reputation in the world because of our Modern Slavery Act. It was a brave and important thing to do. It was welcomed across the whole House.
I am proud that it was a Conservative government that did this, I am not proud that there is a Conservative government undermining that when we know that more than three quarters of those who appeal in these circumstances are found to be right in their appeal.
I think those of us who sit in our comfortable places might just think on Ash Wednesday that this is a moment to reach out to those who are uncomfortable and are not able to speak up for themselves, and there are few people who are in a worse position than these.
So on what possible moral basis do you threaten to send them to a country which has not signed up to the international agreement on modern slavery, to a country which has twice as many modern slaves as we do and we admit that we have many whom we have not traced, to a country which has a history of ignoring this problem? How on earth can we defend that on a moral basis, leave alone a practical basis?
What the blazes is the use of claiming that there is a deterrent effect when the person you are talking about is not in a position to be deterred because they have been taken up by someone who has made those decisions for them?
Updated
Victims of modern slavery and human trafficking should be protected from removal to Rwanda, a former top judge has told the government.
Baroness Butler-Sloss, the first female Lord Justice of Appeal, argued for this to be added to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill as peers continued their line-by-line scrutiny on Wednesday.
The independent crossbench peer told the House of Lords:
The Modern Slavery Act is an outstanding piece of legislation by, for goodness sake, a Conservative government. We were all extremely proud of it, it was copied in Australia and in other countries.
The government asserts, without evidence, that the system of assessing whether a person is a genuine victim is being abused. But the figures from the NRM (National Referral Mechanism) show that the majority of those going through the system are found to be genuine.
Noting that modern slavery protections no longer apply to “those trafficked into this country for exploitation here”, she argued this will have “a devastating effect on victims and also on the United Kingdom’s ability to deal with the perpetrators of this heinous crime”.
Butler-Sloss, who is also the vice chairwoman of the Human Trafficking Foundation, urged the government to accept her amendment to show “some support to those who are or are about to be victims of a hugely profitable and odious trade in men, women and children”.
The Guardian’s Steven Morris has interviewed Wales’ economy minister, Vaughan Gething, who is battling to become the leader of Welsh Labour, and thus the first minister of Wales, as well as the country’s first black leader next month.
Gething said of his candidacy:
You can’t deny the historic nature of it. I think I should win because I’m the best candidate. I’ve got loads of experience. I’ve got values rooted in our movement. I was a trade union shop steward, Wales TUC president, had 10 years as an employment lawyer and I have a vision for the future. But if I win, the fact that I’ll be the first black leader of any European nation is a matter of historic significance.
Elizabeth Butler-Sloss is telling the House of Lords that the UK was rightly proud of legislation it introduced to combat modern slavery, which was copied by other nations, but that Rwanda does not have similar provisions.
“The government asserts without evidence” she says, that the modern slavery legislation is being abused.
Home secretary James Cleverly has commented on the safety of MPs, saying he is working with the speaker of the house on the issue. He posted to social media:
The intimidation of MPs is wrong and undemocratic. The speaker and I work with parliamentary security and the police to keep measures for MPs under constant review. MPs shouldn’t have to choose between their family’s safety and representing their community.
The comments come in the wake of a pro-Palestinian demonstration that was held outside the house of Conservative MP and former Middle East minister Tobias Ellwood’s house.
Alicia Kearns, chairperson of the foreign affairs select committee, commented:
It is wholly unacceptable for a public servant’s private home to be targeted. This has a chilling effect on political discourse, and serves only to push politicians to the point where they question whether it is all worth it, especially for their families.
Ellwood and his two sons were reported to be at the house at the time of the protest.
House of Lords begins second day of debate on Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill
The House of Lords has started to debate amendments to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. You can watch it here.
Liberal Democrat peer Paul Scriven is opening the debate and said the house is dealing with “a world of fiction and untruths” in the bill.
You can read the amendments being debated here.
Train drivers at five rail operators have voted to continue taking strike action for another six months.
Aslef announced that its members on Chiltern, c2c, East Midlands, Northern and TransPennine railways had overwhelmingly backed carrying on with action. Unions involved in disputes are forced to reballot their members every six months on continuing with industrial action.
PA Media reports Mick Whelan, general secretary of Aslef said:
Our members have voted, time and again, for strikes. That’s why Mark Harper, the transport secretary, is being disingenuous when he says that offer should have been put to members.
Drivers obviously wouldn’t vote for industrial action, again and again and again, if they thought that was a good offer. They don’t. That offer was dead in the water in April last year – and I think Mr Harper knows that.
Our North of England editor Helen Pidd is on the Today in Focus podcast today, which asks what on earth is going on in the Rochdale byelection?
She has been covering the election, and speaking to people in Rochdale about the chaotic political process there. She tells Nosheen Iqbal how voters are feeling and what really matters to them. You can listen to it here …
The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) regulator has launched an investigation into the performance of National Highways.
In a media statement, the regulator said:
Since it was created, National Highways has generally achieved its aims and delivered well for road users. ORR’s annual assessment of National Highways’ performance, published in July 2023, identified a number of potential risks, such as delivery of its capital portfolio and asset management strategy. Since then, ORR has observed that those risks have materialised, and performance has dipped across several areas.
National Highways operates and maintains motorways and major A-roads in England.
Feras Alshaker, director of planning and performance at ORR, is quoted as saying “National Highways has generally delivered well for road users, but in recent months we have become concerned that its performance has dipped in a number of areas and issues are recurring.”
The regulator says it is planning for the investigation to take approximately eight to 12 weeks between February and April 2024.
House of Lords to debate Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill amendments
The House of Lords has begun sitting for the day. There is a live stream here.
A bit later on it will be debating the government’s Rwanda deportation Bill again, and in advance there are another 34 pages of potential amendments to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. You can read those here.
Among the possible changes are clauses which are designed to:
ensure the declaration that Rwanda is a safe country is capable of being rebutted in law by credible evidence.
seek to give effect to the proposition that parliament cannot judge Rwanda to be a safe country until the Rwanda treaty has been, and continues to be, fully implemented.
ensure that Rwanda is not to be conclusively treated as a safe country where the person to be removed is an unaccompanied child, a victim of human trafficking, or a victim of modern slavery.
seeks to ensure that the act does not apply retrospectively.
Among those putting their names to the amendments are Shami Chakrabarti, Brenda Hale, Douglas Hogg and archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby.
This is not the business live blog – that is with my colleague Jasper Jolly over here – but there is a bit more economic data out from the ONS today which is likely to have ramification for politics and the cost of living crisis.
The average UK house price fell by around £4,000 in the 12 months to December 2023, according to official figures, although the change was unevenly distributed among the nations.
Property values fell annually by 2.1% in England and by 2.5% in Wales, but house prices increased annually by 3.3% in Scotland and by 1.4% in Northern Ireland. London had the biggest fall in house prices. I think I can predict the Daily Express front page tomorrow.
The private rental market saw large cost increases for tenants. The ONS said private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 6.2% in the 12 months to January 2024.
Annual private rental prices increased by 6.1% in England, 7.0% in Wales and 6.8% in Scotland in the 12 months to January 2024. The ONS said Northern Ireland’s data was only available up to November 2023, so it has not been broken out.
The 6.8% increase in Scotland is the highest annual rate since the Scotland data started in January 2012. Rents in London increased by 6.9% annually – representing the joint-highest annual percentage change since London records started in January 2006.
The headline inflation figures today do mean that the prime minister can claim to have achieved one of his five key pledges, albeit the one where the target for inflation belongs to the independent Bank of England rather than the government per se.
Here is a quick ready reckoner on where Rishi Sunak stands with the five key pledges he made in January, which are listed here and highlighted in bold in this list.
“We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security”. Sunak needed inflation to fall to below 5.4%, and it has.
“We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country”. The final GDP figures for the year will be published on Thursday, it looks unlikely that the economy will have grown by much more than 0.5%, and may have shrunk.
“We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services”. The national debt rose over the course of 2023. It stands at 97.7%, higher than it was a year earlier when it stood at 95.8%.
“NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly”. Sunak’s government is only responsible for health in England, as it is a devolved matter. The number of people waiting for NHS treatment reached an estimated 7.61 million in November, up from 7.21 million in January 2023.
“We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed”. 29,437 people crossed the Channel in small boats in 2023 down from 45,755 in 2022. Sunak has failed to pass his Rwanda deportation bill, with the supreme court ruling against it in November.
Updated
Sunak: 'I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner'
Rishi Sunak has told the media that he absolutely believes “the economy has turned the corner” while convening the first meeting of his 2024 Business Council.
Speaking in Downing Street to chief executives, PA Media reports the prime minister said during the public opening of the meeting:
I’m absolutely determined to make the UK the best place in the world to start to grow and invest in businesses.
Of course we’re still battling with lots of global headwinds, not least the Red Sea at the moment, but at the start of this year I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner and we’re now pointing in the right direction.
Hopefully that’s something that you’re seeing in your businesses, but inflation has been more than halved from 11% down to 4%, mortgage rates are starting to come down.
Everyone is predicting us to grow this year.
By the way I notice in the comments – see I promised that I do read them – some criticism of the reporting of the inflation figures saying that food prices fell when the headline inflation rate is 4%.
While it is true that inflation falling from 11% to 4% doesn’t mean that prices are going down, it means they are going up more slowly, my understanding is that the food price component of the inflation figures did show prices going down, albeit from a high base.
From our reporting:
However, food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell at a monthly rate of 0.4% in January, the first monthly decline since May 2021, driven by price cuts in January for bread and cereals, cream crackers, sponge cake and chocolate biscuits.
Against a backdrop of a tough Christmas for UK retailers because of weak consumer spending, furniture prices also fell at the fastest monthly rate in four years amid steep reductions for kitchens, leather settees, dining tables and chairs.
There is a breakdown chart here:
#Inflation held down by a further fall in #food price inflation and weakness in 'furniture and household goods' and 'clothing and footwear' - consistent with the idea that December's slump in #retail sales has prompted some heavier discounting... pic.twitter.com/OFFAQYNwsF
— Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop) February 14, 2024
Whether any of that actually translates to people feeling they are better off or that their supermarket shop has got cheaper remains to be seen, as the ONS notes:
The ONS said that although food inflation fell on the month in January, prices had increased by 25% over the past two years – more than double the rate seen over the entire preceding decade.
On Tuesday, Labour suspended Graham Jones, the candidate for Hyndburn in Lancashire, who referred to “fucking Israel” and questioned why British citizens were fighting with the Israel Defense Forces in the invasion of Gaza while at the same meeting where Azhar Ali made remarks that led to his suspension.
The Jewish Labour Movement (JLM) has called for the suspension of other councillors or candidates in attendance over claims they failed to criticise these remarks.
Mike Katz, the chair of JLM, suggested that even attendance at the meeting could be enough to warrant suspension. He said: “To be in that meeting, to have heard that rhetoric, to have been a bystander … whether councillors, whether MPs, they’re there to promote community cohesion.”
Asked whether any other councillors or parliamentary candidates who were at the meeting should be suspended, Katz said: “If they’re identifiable, absolutely, we’d say, we’d say that.”
It is not known if the remarks by Ali and Jones went unchallenged.
Read more of Matthew Weaver’s report here: Starmer urged to suspend councillors at meeting that heard Israel comments
Labour require swings of 11.4% and 17.9% to take Kingswood and Wellingborough in byelections
A few facts and figures on the Kingswood and Wellingborough byelections, courtesy of PA. They note that if the Conservatives lose one or both, it would mean the government has clocked up more by-election defeats in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s.
The last government to lose this many by-elections during a single parliament was the 1992-97 Conservative administration led by John Major.
In Kingswood, Chris Skidmore had won the Gloucestershire constituency for the Conservatives at the past four general elections, increasing his share of the vote on each occasion. In January Skidmore resigned over Rishi Sunak’s environmental policies and plans for new oil and gas licences, saying “I can also no longer condone nor continue to support a government that is committed to a course of action that I know is wrong and will cause future harm. To fail to act, rather than merely speak out, is to tolerate a status quo that cannot be sustained.”
Before 2010, Labour had won the seat at every general election since 1992. To win Labour needs a swing of 11.4%, much smaller than ones achieved in its recent by-election successes against the Tories.
The Northamptonshire constituency of Wellingborough was won by disgraced former MP Peter Bone for the Conservatives at every general election from 2005 to 2019. In October he was suspended from parliament for six weeks after a watchdog found he had harassed and bullied a staff member and exposed his genitals near their face.
In an interview with the BBC at the time, the unnamed alleged victim claimed that “the physical, emotional and psychological abuse” he suffered at the hands of Bone had left him a “broken shell of the young man I once was”. Bone has denied the allegations, but was subject to a recall petition which has forced the byelection. His partner is standing for the Conservatives.
Labour came second in four of the five contests, the exception being 2015 when Ukip was runner-up. Further back, Labour won Wellingborough at the 1997 and 2001 general elections. The swing needed by Labour to win the seat is larger than in Kingswood, at 17.9%.
Polls open at 7am tomorrow, and will close at 10pm. The results are anticipated to be declared in both constituencies some time after 4am.
Due to new laws introduced by the Conservative government, voters will need to bring an accepted form of photo ID with them. An interim study by the Electoral Commission warned after last year’s local elections of “concerning” signs that voters with disabilities, people who are unemployed, or those from particular ethnic groups could be disproportionately affected by the policy. About 14,000 people were turned away from polling stations at May’s local elections because they lacked the right ID.
Somewhat inevitably, given the coverage over the last couple of days, shadow defence secretary John Healey’s media round this morning was dominated by questions about Labour’s selection and disciplinary processes in the wake of the suspension of two candidates – Azhar Ali and Graham Jones.
Addressing the questions of whether there were flaws in Labour’s vetting process, Healy said on the BBC:
Azhar Ali was widely respected, widely supported across communities, including the Jewish community in the North West, and there certainly are strong checks, the due diligence process as part of selecting Labour candidates.
But you can’t see everything everywhere. What’s important is that if new information comes to light, as in this case, we will act to investigate, we will act to block those who are not fit to serve as MPs.
He told Sky News that the Labour party was not a “party of people who are saints”. He said:
Restoring, retaining the trust of the Jewish community and any community is a constant process. And Keir Starmer is deeply, deeply aware of that. He pledged to root out antisemitism as part of the changes he wanted to make to Labour, regarded them as essential. He’s done that.
But this is not a party of people who are saints. When people do things that may be wrong, say things that may be unacceptable, the important thing is how does the party respond. We have an independent investigations process and when it concerns candidates or MPs, we expect as the public does the very highest standards.
He also told Sky News viewers:
Why Graham Jones has been suspended is not just for being at the meeting. But what’s come to light are unacceptable comments that he made that were plain wrong.
So he was suspended and then interviewed. And if the party decides, Keir Starmer decides, that he too is not meeting the highest standards that the public have a right to expect and Keir Starmer insist on in our candidates … then he will be replaced.
If you missed it, overnight my colleagues Aletha Adu and Eleni Courea have written an analysis piece about the meeting of councillors in the north-west of England that has resulted in the two suspensions:
My colleague Phillip Inman has this analysis on this morning’s inflation figures:
Good news came from the food industry, where inflation fell from December to January, but the annual rate remains high at 7% and food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are about 25% higher than they were two years ago, the Office for National Statistics said.
Worse is the price of electricity, gas, and other fuels. Inflation for this category has fallen by 18% since its peak in January 2023. However, prices last month were 89% higher than they were in January 2021.
These are dramatic increases in the cost of living. So it is no wonder the boss of the TUC, Paul Nowak, is hopping mad about any talk of lower inflation somehow meaning the problem has gone away for most people.
At the Bank of England, policymakers will be concerned that strong wage increases are flowing into higher prices and that its job of taming inflation is not yet done.
The hotel and restaurant trade seems to show that trend in action. However, low-paid workers are being helped by the national minimum wage, which employers know is going up by almost 10% in April, to £11.44 an hour. Like the energy price cap, this is a government initiative that the Bank cannot do anything about.
Read more of Phillip Inman’s analysis here: UK households face battle to regain former living standards even if inflation eases
Here is a scoot around the newspaper front pages today, more than a couple of which make for pretty grim reading for Keir Starmer. The Times, Telegraph, Independent and Guardian all feature the party’s mess over candidate selection, with the Times and Telegraph both using the word “crisis”.
Introducing #TomorrowsPapersToday from:#TheGuardian
— #TomorrowsPapersToday - The Press Room (@channel_tsc) February 13, 2024
Abuse and attacks on shop staff rise by 50%
For a comprehensive collection of newspapers, explore: https://t.co/zvOl5CpDm7
Don't forget to support journalism – #buyanewspaper or #buyapaper for the latest updates! pic.twitter.com/QVoiXhLtDM
Wednesday's TIMES: Labour in crisis after a second suspension#tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/k6OK7Lpiva
— Jack Surfleet (@jacksurfleet) February 13, 2024
Wednesday's DAILY TELEGRAPH: Labour faces fresh crisis over anti-Israel remarks#tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/1UuMzHuzBF
— Jack Surfleet (@jacksurfleet) February 13, 2024
Presenting today’s front page from:#Independent
— #TomorrowsPapersToday - The Press Room (@channel_tsc) February 14, 2024
For more newspapers visit: https://t.co/zvOl5CpDm7#buyanewspaper #TomorrowsPapersToday #buyapaper pic.twitter.com/uk7fywZaJk
Starmer must be grateful that the Daily Mail is more obsessed with attacking Harry and Meghan than it is about attacking the Labour leader, leading with a bizarre story about the couple’s “provocative” new website address.
Wednesday's DAILY MAIL: Row over Harry's 'Royal' website rebrand#tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/5tMO11DDmw
— Jack Surfleet (@jacksurfleet) February 13, 2024
The death of radio DJ Steve Wright also features prominently. The Daily Express leads with reporting of an incident at the house of Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood.
Tory MP Tobias Ellwood's sinister targeting by pro-Palestine mob condemned as 'chilling'https://t.co/C8n1Sd7oUz#TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/B4y9pTbTgy
— Express Politics (@ExpressPolitics) February 13, 2024
Reeves: 'millions of families' still struggling with cost of living despite inflation news
Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has reacted to the inflation figures, which show prices still rising at 4% annually, by saying that “millions of families” are still worse off under the this government than they were at the last election.
She said:
After 14 years of economic failure working people are worse off. Prices are still rising in the shops, with the average household’s costs up £110-a-week compared to before the last election.
Inflation is still higher than the Bank of England’s target and millions of families are struggling with the cost of living.
The Conservatives cannot fix the economy because they are the reason it is broken. It’s time for change. Only Labour has a long-term plan to get Britain’s future back by delivering more jobs, more investment and cheaper bills.
The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said:
Inflation never falls in a perfect straight line, but the plan is working; we have made huge progress in bringing inflation down from 11%, and the Bank of England forecast that it will fall to around 2% in a matter of months.
Inflation was at 11% in November 2022, its highest rate since October 1981, just after Rishi Sunak took office as prime minister.
UK inflation remains unchanged at 4% as food prices fall
Richard Partington and Larry Elliott report:
Britain’s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 4% in January despite an increase in energy bills as the cost of living crisis persisted.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed inflation as measured by the consumer prices index defying predictions of an increase in January, after the first monthly fall in food prices for more than two years offset the rise in gas and electricity costs.
The Bank of England had predicted a small rise in inflation last month after an increase in the Ofgem energy price cap for households across Great Britain, while economists polled by Reuters expected an increase to 4.2%.
Last month’s better-than-predicted news on the cost of living is likely to be followed by a fall in inflation to the government’s 2% target in the spring.
Inflation was last at 2% in July 2021 and rose to a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 before starting to decline.
Read more of Richard Partington and Larry Elliott’s report here: UK inflation remains unchanged at 4% as food prices fall
Final day of campaigning in Kingswood and Wellingborough byelections
The headlines for much of this week might have been about the Rochdale byelection, which takes place on 29 February, but pressingly it is the final day of campaigning in the Wellingborough and the Kingswood byelections today. Here is a quick reminder of what is going on there …
Wellingborough has a byelection after veteran Conservative MP Peter Bone was subject to a recall petition after a watchdog found he had bullied a staff member and exposed his genitals near their face, which Bone has denied. The Conservatives have selected his partner Helen Harrison to defend the seat, which has not gone down well with locals. Bone won in 2019 with a majority of 18,540.
Gen Kitchen is the Labour candidate and Keir Starmer was in the constituency with her yesterday. Ana Gunn is standing for the Liberal Democrats and Will Morris standing for the Green party. The co-deputy leader of Reform UK, Ben Habib is their candidate. Labour overturned even bigger Conservative majorities in October 2023 byelections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, leading to some expectation resting on Kitchen that she will win.
Peter Walker recently visited the constituency for us, which you can read about here: ‘We’re not complacent’ – Labour wary of overconfidence in Wellingborough byelection
John Harris also went there recently to produce an episode of the Politics Weekly podcast for us, in which he spoke to local groups helping to deal with knife crime and the closure of youth centres, and met Habib. You can listen to that here.
Kingswood has it byelection after its Conservative MP, Chris Skidmore, a leading Tory voice on green issues, resigned in protest againt his party’s dash for oil and gas. Sam Bromiley is defending Skidmore’s 11,220 majority from 2019. Labour have selected Damien Egan in a seat which has swung between the Tories and Labour over the last century. The Green party came fourth in Kingswood in 2019 but since then has become the largest group on Bristol city council, and has Lorraine Francis standing for it. Andrew Brown is standing for the Liberal Democrats. Reform UK and Ukip also have candidates, with Rupert Lowe, former chairman of Rishi Sunak’s beloved Southampton MP, standing for Richard Tice’s party.
Steven Morris was there in January as the campaign got under way: ‘Not a practice run’: Labour braves the cold before Kingswood byelection
Of course, all these visits and reports were before the events of the last few days, where Labour’s candidate selection procedures have come under intense scrutiny.
Welcome and opening summary …
Good morning. This time tomorrow polls will be open in the Wellingborough and the Kingswood byelections, which were expected to be a big test of whether Rishi Sunak would retain a grip on his leadership of the Tory party if results went against the prime minister. Instead they are likely to be viewed almost entirely through the prism of Labour in the wake of the suspension of two parliamentary candidates in two days.
Here are the headlines …
A second Labour parliamentary candidate was suspended yesterday over comments made about Israel in a private meeting of Labour activists. It is understood that the party has suspended Graham Jones, its candidate for Hyndburn. Jones is the second Labour parliamentary candidate to be suspended in less than 24 hours over comments made during the meeting, following the decision by Keir Starmer to withdraw support from Azhar Ali, the party’s candidate in Rochdale.
Britain’s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 4% in January despite an increase in energy bills as the cost of living crisis persisted. The first monthly fall in food prices for more than two years offset the rise in gas and electricity costs. The Bank of England’s target is 2%. We can expect words from Rishi Sunak on this later.
The Northern Ireland budget settlement will be discussed in Stormont, with the permanent secretary of the department of finance to appear before the newly reconstituted assembly’s finance committee.
Hundreds of frontline NHS staff are treating patients despite being under investigation for their part in an alleged “industrial-scale” qualifications fraud. More than 700 nurses are caught up in a potential scandal, which a former head of the Royal College of Nursing said could put NHS patients at risk.
The UK’s hostile environment policies had a worse effect on the mental health of black Caribbean people than the coronavirus lockdown had on the wider population, researchers have found.
The Commons is in recess. The Lords is sitting from 11am and Rwanda is on the agenda later in the day. The Senedd and the Scottish parliament are not sitting. Stormont has a finance committee meeting.
It is Martin Belam here with you again today, desperately trying to avoid shoehorning Valentine’s day references into the blog non-stop. I do try to read and dip into the comments when I can, but if you want to get my attention the best way is to email me – martin.belam@theguardian.com – especially if you have spotted an error or typo.
