The NFL is officially back!
After an offseason that saw the Houston Texans elevate from a fun, new playoff team to what many consider a Super Bowl contender, the squad is ready to debut both their new talent and uniforms on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
Back in January, Houston defeated Indianapolis on its way to both the AFC South title and the playoff win. During the offseason, the Colts remained quiet on the free agency front while the Texans went for the splash moves.
Rather than commit exorbitant resources to bring in talent, general manager Chris Ballard is betting heavily that the natural development of young players and similar coaching efforts to a year prior can propel the team forward.
It’s not a sexy approach, but that doesn’t mean that second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson and offensive mastermind Shane Steichen won’t be a chess match of problems to prep against.
Richardson, the most athletic quarterback to ever test at the NFL Combine, torched Houston in a Week 2 victory last season, scoring two touchdowns in the first quarter before exiting with injury. Despite the loss of that talent, Steichen was able to assemble a patchwork offense around journeyman Gardner Minshew that kept the Colts in the playoff hunt through Week 18.
One of the league’s most unique physical talents at quarterback with undoubtedly one of the league’s best play designers and play callers – now in their sophomore season. That presents a unique challenge that DeMeco Ryans and his defense will face to kickstart the 2024 season.
What does the path to success look like? The film tells a compelling story.
First, Houston must find ways to stay disciplined against a unique ground game. The Texans ranked sixth in rushing yards per game in 2023 with 96.6 yards allowed, but that number soared against Steichen’s schemed run game with 176.5 yards allowed on average between two contests.
New defensive tackles Foley Fatukasi and Mario Edwards Jr., plus linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, should help fortify the interior against Indianapolis interior trenches. Still, even if able to match physicality, the question becomes more about run discipline.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831409820647432335
Steichen isn’t afraid to balance the line between modern and historic concepts to generate a run game. Take this play below, for example, against the Los Angeles Rams: There’s little window dressing, yet the defense is accustomed to seeing the handoff.
Combined with some pulling blockers, the Colts effectively run quarterback power for a first down.
Sometimes, however, it’s the opposite. Play designs can border on bland to oversaturated and elaborate.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831299375659704332
In his 2023 debut, Steichen leaned into a formation that’s similar to the “Flexbone” or the triple option many readers have seen at high school-level games or military colleges. It’s an older offense that has gone out of vogue in new school concepts, but it still accomplishes the primary goal of creating an excellent run look.
The orbit motion from Josh Downs moves the linebackers in the wrong direction before he ultimately reverses and becomes a lead blocker for Richardson on the keeper.
Defending these concepts becomes challenging, not only due to the noise around the actual play but also because of how unique it is to the Colts.
Concepts like the ones below are an absolute must to defend Indianapolis but aren’t ones that Houston will see again this season. Even Lamar Jackson, the league’s poster boy of mobile passers, doesn’t run an offense the way Steichen plans to use Richardson. As such, it’s an odd position of a niche but a necessity entering the contest.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831443758799581605
Looking back at the Los Angeles game, see how much detail Steichen can stuff around this simple quarterback-read option. A wide receiver comes motion that crosses the formation and a tight end crosses the formation to become the lead blocker should Richardson keep.
Life altogether becomes challenging for the linebackers. With Christian Harris out, expect Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o to start this upcoming game. There’s a degree to defending the run that becomes a guessing game. If players pursue or fly downfield incorrectly, it’s a win for Indy’s offense.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831296879797166196
That’s their second key to victory – force legitimate passing downs to eliminate Richardson’s mobility. Steichen, just as he does in the running game, will look to make life easier for Richardson through the air.
That likely comes in two specific ways.
The first will be creating quick passes in optimal receiver matchups, specifically the slot. Rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell from Texas will be positioned with either alignment or motion to run routes against Jalen Pitre or the linebackers, which should be an offensive advantage.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831379072825635237
It will be an early test for Pitre in the nickel spot defending receivers, especially when the route can go any direction. It becomes even more challenging when integrated with his run-stopping responsibilities in the context of the “RPO.” Steichen and Richardson will have no problem borrowing the college game for easier gains.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831386775086100576
Those slot routes not only create quick passing options for Richardson, but they also play an essential role in nullifying the pass rush.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831381041321537664
Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have a game-wrecking mentality on the exterior for Houston. It’s a strength that Indianapolis plans to take out of the game early. Having third-and-short or third-and-medium calls will allow quicker passing and route concepts where the Colts can roll the pocket and have Richardson on the move.
The Texans’ ability to force third-and-8-plus from Indinanpolis’ offense will put Richardson in a scenario where he’s forced to participate in grown-up NFL quarterbacking.
Richardson’s accuracy, albeit likely overblown by the public, is still a process from down to down and forcing progressions that take longer than 2 seconds buys time for Ryans’ defense to affect his process. The offense won’t be able to scheme the same quick passes and it will require the pocket to hold against the Texans’ front.
Truly, Houston’s ferocious pass rushers and Ryans’ scheming talents on coverages and stunts make their impact when Indianapolis has to hunt for chunk yardage.
https://twitter.com/JohnHCrumpler/status/1831445812716696044
The third and final key to the game circles back to Ryans – Houston cannot find themselves outcoached or allow their talent to be coached out of the game.
On paper, this is a matchup where stars like Anderson, Hunter, Al-Shaair, and cornerback Derek Stingley should give the Texans a firm advantage from a talent standpoint. They cannot allow Steichen to remove those pieces from the chessboard purely from a schematic standpoint.
Houston must force Indianapolis to win by forcing them to win individually against someone like Stingley in coverage or Anderson crashing down on the interior after a stunt. What does that effectively look like?
Ryans cannot hesitate to move Stingley around the field, as he did in the playoffs against Cleveland and Baltimore, if Indianapolis is willing to play around him. Allowing Steichen to consistently align Michael Pittman or
Mitchell across from rookie Kamari Lassiter, however promising he looks, would be a waste toward a budding All-Pro talent in the secondary.
On the defensive line, Ryans will have to be creative and ensure that his edge rushers don’t go to waste on chips and pocket movements.
DeMeco ain’t about making it about his coaching history (OR NOT) with Shane Steichen. Asked him about it and it’s all about the players. DeMeco in full HARDO mode. #HTownMade pic.twitter.com/ffqG7PzB4D
— Landry Locker (@LandryLocker) September 2, 2024
Ryans and Steichen have a budding coaching rivalry from their times in San Francisco and Philadelphia, respectively. How these two prepare their players and can attack evolving weaknesses of each other likely dictates how this matchup fares.
It’s almost impossible to bet against Ryans after the last 12 months and there’s ample reason to believe they’re ready for the challenge that Steichen and Richardson present as a unit.
Fans will get their first look at how the hometown hero coach fares against the Colts’ dynamic offense at noon CT on Sunday.
