Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
ABC News
ABC News
National
Marian Faa

Fiji's former coup leaders Frank Bainimarama and Sitiveni Rabuka to face off in tense election battle

Fiji could head to the polls as early as next month or as late as January 2023.  (ABC News: Catherine Graue)

To most Australians, Fiji is a tropical paradise known for its exquisite beaches, luxurious resorts, sunset cocktails and vibrant, friendly culture. 

But behind the scenes, a tense battleground of politics is taking shape. 

Fiji's national election is set to be a contest between two former military commanders, both former instigators of military coups in the country. 

The Pacific island nation could head to the polls as early as next month or as late as January 2023. 

While an official election date is yet to be set, political parties are wasting no time trying to win the hearts of voters, with campaigning already in full swing. 

The latest opinion polls put former prime minister Sitiveni Rabuka in the lead with 30 to 40 per cent of the projected vote. 

If elected, he will topple incumbent Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, who came to power after instigating a military takeover in 2006. 

Mr Bainimarama's Fiji First party is tracking second in the opinion polls with 20 to 30 per cent popularity. 

The latest opinion polls put Mr Rabuka (right) in the lead with 30 to 40 per cent of the projected vote.  (Supplied)

That makes it unlikely any single party will win an outright majority, meaning the next government will probably be a coalition of political parties. 

Steven Ratuva, an expert in Fijian politics from the University of Canterbury, said a change of leadership would be a big deal for Fiji.

"A new stage of democracy will have to start from there," Professor Ratuva said.

Back for another crack

Mr Rabuka served as Fiji's prime minister between 1992 and 1999. 

The veteran politician retired two years ago, stepping down from his post as leader of the Social Democrat Liberal Party (SODELPA). 

At the time, Mr Rabuka said his resignation would allow a new opposition leader to take over in the hope a better relationship could be formed with the government.

Now 73 years old, he's back for another crack at the top job, this time as leader of the People's Alliance Party.

Political parties in Fiji are yet to release their official policy platforms. 

Unemployment and access to basic needs are front of mind for voters ahead of Fiji's elections. (Twitter: IBIupdate)

But with the country's economy in tatters after the COVID-19 pandemic, Mr Rabuka is campaigning on the back of his political track record. 

But his past isn't all rosy. 

Mr Rabuka is famously known as the instigator of two military coups in 1987, deposing a majority Indo-Fijian government to reinstate ethnic Fijian dominance. 

He has previously apologised for the coups, and said the past was behind him. 

"We will continue to be a democratic country and be more democratic than we have been the last 16 years," he said. 

Fiji is a tropical paradise known for its exquisite beaches and luxurious resorts. (Supplied: Turtle Island)

'Used to being in power'

The ABC invited Mr Bainimarama to be interviewed but his office did not respond. 

Mr Bainimarama was formally sworn in as Fiji's eighth prime minister in 2014, the country's first democratic elections since he seized power in a 2006 military coup. 

He was re-elected in 2018, winning by a slim outright majority.

Now 68, he has built his image as a progressive and a fierce advocate for action on climate change, highlighting the Pacific's plight on the world stage.

Mr Bainimarama also led Fiji through the COVID-19 pandemic and pushed for mass vaccination, allowing the nation to reopen its borders to tourists late last year. 

However, his government has been heavily criticised for stifling press freedom, interfering in the judicial system and enabling police brutality. 

Professor Ratuva said an election loss for the incumbent government would test the strength of democracy in Fiji. 

"[The current government is] used to being in power. And what are the means by which they will respond to that?" he asked. 

One expert says an election loss for the incumbent government would test the strength of democracy.  (Reuters: Tim Wimborne, file)

Reluctance to concede election defeat has been observed in other Pacific countries recently. 

Samoa was caught in a months-long political deadlock last year when former prime minister Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi refused to give up power after an election loss. 

Vijay Naidu, an associate professor from the University of the South Pacific, pointed to risk stemming from the Fijian constitution. 

"There is a provision for the military to be the final arbiter of the welfare and security of all Fijians," he told the ABC. 

"And for some commentators, it's like an open cheque for possible military intervention."

Dr Naidu is hopeful lessons from Fiji's past will prevent any instability. 

"By this stage, there would be sufficient maturity and common sense that we wouldn't have that kind of intervention," he said. 

Economic crisis looms

Whichever party does get into power will have a tough road ahead, with Fiji in a significant amount of debt following the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The country's economy contracted by 19 per cent in 2020, one of the world's worst downturns in growth according to the World Bank. 

Dr Naidu said there was concern Fiji could end up in a similar situation to Sri Lanka, which teeters on the brink of bankruptcy. 

Fiji's economy took a blow when the pandemic hit. (ABC: Kurt Petersen)

Meli, a government employee whose name has been changed due to sensitivities surrounding Fijian politics, said cost of living pressures were mounting. 

Filomena, a Fijian local who also asked to remain anonymous, said better public health care was her main priority. 

The election has also seen a record number of minor parties emerge in Fiji. 

Professor Ratuva said this will make it hard for any single party to form government. 

"Most probably it's going to be a coalition party between two or three or even four political parties," he said.

China on the rise

Another difficult task for the new Fijian government will be navigating intensifying geopolitical competition between China and the West. 

Mr Bainimarama has maintained a positive relationship with China during his terms, recently welcoming China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Fiji.

But he has also pressured China to take more action on climate change. 

"The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focused on power. At an excellent meeting with Minister Wang Yi, I've sought stronger Chinese commitment to keep 1.5 alive," Mr Bainimarama wrote in a tweet. 

Mr Rabuka said China had been an important partner to Fiji, particularly when Australia and other nations distanced themselves following the 2006 coup. 

"Now that things have stabilised and relationships within the region have stabilised, we need to go back to the traditional partners we had," he said. 

Mr Rabuka blamed Chinese influence for what he described as a change in "traditional" methods of governance, pointing particularly to the Fijian Police Force. 

Widespread complaints of police brutality have emerged in Fiji in recent years, which Mr Rabuka attributed to a Chinese-style "disciplinarian" approach. 

China and Fiji have joint police training and cooperation arrangements. 

"We have seen influences of China's association with us creeping into the various areas of our government operations," Mr Rabuka said. 

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.