The new head of the British Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, has sent a letter to his troops warning that they must now be prepared to “fight in Europe”. The Army must prepare “to protect the UK and to be ready to fight wars on land”. There is, he wrote, “a burning imperative to forge an army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle”.
As if on cue, Moscow has threatened Lithuania over its ban on goods entering the exclave of Kaliningrad under EU sanctions. “Russia reserves the right to take actions in its national interests,” an official declared. This a direct threat against a member of both Nato and the EU. Britain would be bound to respond to a direct attack on a Nato ally under Article Five of Nato’s founding charter, which stresses mutual defence by every member as an obligation.
But what could the British Army do in such a crisis? Precisely what is, or should be, the role of all Britain’s forces and security agencies as the battle for Ukraine widens to global disruption?
Boris Johnson and others have warned that the fighting in Ukraine is likely to go on for a long time, calling for a commitment to sustaining Ukraine’s forces and the legitimate government of Volodymyr Zelensky. In particular the PM has emphasised the need to keep the Black Sea port of Odesa open and for Ukraine to be able to export its grain and other vital produce.
This is all a lot tougher than it first appears. In Britain, Western Europe and Europe it has yet to dawn on many in power and in the commentariat that the Ukraine crisis will be central to defence and security planning and thinking for years to come. Human resources, materials and budgets will have to be allocated accordingly.
The Army is facing another round of cuts — and some in the Treasury want even more. The number of soldiers is to be reduced to 75,000, which will leave gaps in capabilities. It’s hoped to use more reserves but for these to be really useful, they will have to be paid much more and the present stingy allowances must be improved.
The role of the Army and the forces also needs to be redefined for domestic support and resilience. Their capabilities in organisation, management and support during the Covid pandemic were hugely appreciated by those on the frontline — not least by Kate Bingham in the vaccine roll-out. Across Whitehall, however, I have encountered numerous civil service mandarins and NHS managers who have carped and criticised the soldiers, often in poorly disguised defence of their own Spanish customs and restrictive practices.
General Sanders now has to shape a force for the present crisis at home and abroad. It means an Army trained primarily to fight and deter abroad, to support and sustain at home — where the uncertainties of pandemics, disrupted infrastructure, the effects of climate change and weird weather are accelerating.
Of necessity, and for positive reasons too, the UK will have to work with its allies. In doing so they have to appreciate the new context catalysed, but not entirely created by war in Ukraine. The food and fuel crisis was well on the way before Russian troops went into Ukraine on February 24. But now with the disruption of food exports from Ukraine and Russia, we face the prospect of disaster and famine on Europe’s doorstep by the end of the year. The shortage in fertiliser and manufactured diesel fuel will worsen.
Over the next two weeks we will hear a great deal of high-minded rhetoric from the summits of the EU, the G7 and then Nato at the end of the month. A lot will be sheer grandstanding — a posture not entirely unknown in certain UK government circles. Now is the time for some deep analysis, practical planning and more than a touch of the pragmatism, for which Brits were once famed.
This means a statement of intent, setting the context, then the tasks and roles for British defence and security which are vital and non-discretionary.
For a start we need a rewrite of the Independent Review of 2021, a cutdown version fit for the urgent needs of now. The services need to work together more effectively (with less tribalism) boosted by a streamlined and retooled Central Defence Staff, and a more relevant National Security Council.
Preparing for war is the best way of avoiding war, it is said. Action is needed this day in redefining defence, the military and security strategy. One thing is certain in this uncertain world. If left to tomorrow, it will be too late.
