Federal Reserve officials maintain a stance of neutrality when it comes to predicting the economic impact of political events, such as the election of a new president. The Fed takes pride in avoiding any appearance of involvement in political matters. However, the policies implemented by elected officials do have a significant influence on the economy, which the Fed must consider when making decisions about interest rates to achieve its goals of stable prices and maximum employment.
Following President Trump's election for his first term, the Fed's monetary policy meeting in December 2016 saw officials seeking insights from Fed researchers on how Trump's proposed policies, such as tax cuts and tariffs, could affect the economy. Some researchers indicated that they were already incorporating the potential impacts of Trump's campaign promises into their economic models.
During the meeting, some officials expressed reservations about Trump's agenda, with concerns raised about policies that could restrict immigration and trade. These officials acknowledged that such measures could have negative consequences for the US economy in the medium to long term. However, at that point, these potential effects had not been factored into their economic projections.
It is worth noting that transcripts of these meetings are made available to the public with a delay of approximately five years, ensuring transparency in the Fed's decision-making process. Loretta Mester, the then-president of the Cleveland Fed, highlighted the possible adverse effects of policies limiting immigration and trade on the US economy, emphasizing the importance of considering such factors in economic projections.
