In less than a fortnight, the dust will settle on two issues that, together, will have a huge impact on the global economy. No, not whether the war in West Asia is ending for good. Or whether the Strait of Hormuz has been opened unconditionally. Both are a function of Donald Trump's whims and fancies. As we have seen over the past few months - indeed, ever since January 2025, when he was sworn in - there's no knowing what the mercurial leader will do next.
But what we will know for sure is whether Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee, will take over from Jerome Powell as chair of the US Fed. And, related to that, whether central bank independence is an idea whose time is done.
