Contentious tax changes will have a larger drag on home prices than the government forecast in the budget, according to analysis from Australia's largest lender.
Winding back negative gearing and the capital gains discount for established properties will weigh on home prices by five per cent, compared to Treasury forecasts of a two per cent drag, Commonwealth Bank senior economists Trent Saunders and Ashwin Clarke found.
A slowdown in the property market was already underway before the budget due to global uncertainty and rising interest rates.
But the quick response to the tax changes suggested the near-term impact will be sharper than expected, the duo said in a research note on Wednesday.
"We now expect national dwelling prices to be flat over 2026, down from a forecast of three per cent at budget and five per cent in March."
