Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that inflation remains too high and that bringing it down to the Fed's target level will likely require a slower-growing economy and job market.
Powell noted that inflation has cooled significantly from a year ago. But he cautioned that it's not yet clear whether inflation is on a clear path back to the Fed's 2% target.
“A few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said in remarks to the Economic Club of New York. “We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist or where inflation will settle over coming quarters.”
Last month, Fed officials predicted that they would impose one more interest rate hike before the end of the year, on top of a series of 11 rate increases that have lifted their key rate to about 5.4%, its highest level in 22 years. Economists and Wall Street traders expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged when it next meets in about two weeks.
A string of Fed officials have recently signaled that a rapid increase in longer-term interest rates, including the average 30-year fixed mortgage, which is nearing 8%, will likely cool the economy and help slow inflation. That would allow the Fed to stay on hold and observe how growth and inflation evolve in the coming months.
But several recent economic reports have suggested that the economy is growing robustly and that inflation could remain persistently elevated, which could require further Fed action.
“Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing," Powell said, “could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.”
