Political experts say the Liberal Party's resounding defeat at the Aston by-election is a result of factional infighting and internal issues that have led to a "monumental shift" as voters abandon the Coalition in droves.
The Liberal Party's defeat in the outer-Melbourne electorate was the first time in more than a century that an opposition party has lost a seat to the government in a by-election.
Just two hours into the vote count, the ABC's chief election analyst, Antony Green, announced that Labor's Mary Doyle had a clear lead over her Liberal rival, Roshena Campbell.
The Liberal party suffered a 6 per cent swing against it, after already going backwards at the 2022 federal election while the seat was held by former Liberal minister Alan Tudge.
A decisive victory for Labor's Ms Doyle in the formerly safe seat has left the Liberal party reeling.
Former Liberal strategist Tony Barry made the comment that "the Victorian Liberal Party is where hope goes to die".
Federal MP Keith Wolahan, a rising star of the party and one of only two Liberal representatives left in Melbourne, told ABC Radio Melbourne the party needed to focus less on infighting and more on appealing to voters.
"I think if we're talking about ourselves, then we're not talking about the people of Melbourne and their problems," he said.
"They're doing it really tough and they want us to be focused on those problems, and there are some wonderful solutions that we have, that are grounded in our values, and we need to speak about that more."
Mr Wolahan also praised Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who is facing questions about his ability to regain the ground lost to Labor and teal independents in Melbourne.
"I've seen good and bad leaders, and Peter Dutton is a good leader," he said.
Former prime minister and prominent Liberal moderate Malcolm Turnbull said the Aston result was caused by the party's lurch to the right.
"The party is not just losing seats in the mortgage belt, but it is also losing what had been the crown jewels of the party," he said.
"It has lost, in Melbourne, Kooyong, Higgins, Goldstein. In Sydney it's lost Wentworth, Warringah, North Sydney, MacKellar. I mean there is not one electorate in my city of Sydney, on the harbour, which has a Liberal Party member."
Mr Turnbull said one solution would be to "replenish" the decimated ranks of moderates within the party, but acknowledged this would be a difficult task with centrist rank-and-file members leaving the party.
Party in 'real trouble', expert says
Describing the weekend result as "nothing short of disastrous", Monash University's senior lecturer in politics Zareh Ghazarian said the Liberal defeat showed a "monumental shift".
"People are abandoning the party," he said. "They're abandoning it at the federal level. They abandoned it at the state level … and at the by-election. We've seen the Liberal Party is in real trouble."
Dr Ghazarian said its biggest failing was its focus on itself and not on its constituents.
"The party has been so focused on its internal operation that it has cut oxygen away from any further discussions about what the party wants to do if it were to win government or what the party's broader policies are," he said.
"Once the parties focus on themselves, that opportunity to look at what they might do for others is diminished."
He said the party's approach of "sticking rigidly to policy calls" had weakened its capacity to adapt, change and reflect the mood of the electorate in a timely way.
On the ground, many voters in the electorate were pleasantly surprised by the shock win.
"I didn't know how close it would be … and seeing how many had swung to Labor surprised me," Aston voter Russell Poulier said.
"The views [of the Liberal party] are not in keeping, certainly, with the Victorian electorate.
"It's the whole party that has to look at itself very closely and come to some better way of presenting itself than its currently doing."
A jostling for leadership
Prior to the by-election, Mr Dutton said the result would be a "verdict on the leaders, no doubt about that".
On Sunday, he accepted he had failed his own test and "accepts responsibility" for the loss.
He vowed to rebuild the party to "an election-winning machine by 2025".
Dr Ghazarian said internal jostling for the Liberal leadership would not be out of the question.
"Those who had forecast his [Mr Dutton's] unpopularity, especially in Victoria, they would certainly be emboldened to make a move," he said.
"But, whoever the party has as leader isn't necessarily the problem. It's more about the policies and the approach the party's taking."
The decisive win has sparked hopes that it will force the Liberals towards reinvention and renewal.
However, Dr Ghazarian said, only when internal issues were addressed to allow for a more cohesive party, would it be reflected in the polls.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews described the party as being "bitterly divided", and "hung up" on issues that "real people are not concerned about".
"I think people in Victoria, at least in Aston, have passed judgement on his leadership and what he offers, and it is a nasty brand of politics that is all about themselves," he said.
"Whether its anti-trans, anti-gay, anti-Chinese people, the list goes on and on.
"The Liberal Party are a nasty, bigoted outfit and people have worked them out, and that might be why they keep losing."
Victorian opposition rejects blame over divisions
Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto denied accusations that factional infighting was to blame, saying he did not believe divisions over Liberal MP Moira Deeming's expulsion had an impact on voters.
Ms Deeming's participation in an anti-trans rally that was attended by neo-Nazis had dominated headlines in the lead-up to the by-election.
"It's clear to me, based on comments from candidates, that that simply wasn't an issue on the ground," he said.
"It was a federal by-election, with local issues in it, and none of the issues surrounding the Victorian parliamentary party were being raised with people on pre-poll or [on Saturday].
"I'm well aware, more than anyone … that the party needs to reform if it's to be a winning force again."
Mr Pesutto stopped short of speculating about whether the federal opposition leader was fit for the top job, but said he was aware of the "scale of the challenge" ahead of the party.
