Fastly (NASDAQ: FSLY) shares surged after its Q2 earnings report, signaling it may be time to get back into this momentum trade.
The market is in rebound mode and accelerating, with indicators such as MACD and stochastic suggesting there is ample room to run.
The likely outcome is that FSLY retests the early 2026 highs near $35 and then moves higher to set fresh highs.
Signs pointing to fresh highs include trading volume, a MACD convergence with those early 2026 highs, and improving business fundamentals suggesting the run has just begun.
Fastly Doesn’t Need GPUs: Cash Flow Is Safe, Expansion Ahead
While the stock price surge is rooted in the Q2 earnings release, the catalyst was commentary from CFO Rich Wong. Delivered during a Fireside Chat at KeyBanc’s Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum, his comments provided much-needed color on the company’s growth and margin outlook. The critical detail is that Fastly’s business is software-centric, using CPUs rather than GPUs for scale, and doesn’t need the massive investments of other AI-centric companies. This means it can sustain high and rising margins while its peers struggle with cash flow, using its capital expenditures (CapEx) to fund expansions and not technology updates.
Fastly provides an edge computing platform akin to Cloudflare's (NASDAQ: NET). While Cloudflare is an enterprise-quality ecosystem, facilitating web-based services for publishers across the spectrum, Fastly’s products are more specific, focused on content delivery and, more importantly, developer control and programmability. For AI, it enables low-latency, secure, real-time edge computing and AI application development for websites and publishers close to the end-user.
Fastly: Robust Results Prompt Analysts Into Action
Fastly had a robust Q2 with revenue growing by 23.3% and internals indicating acceleration ahead. The $183.3 million in revenue is outperformed by approximately 500 basis points, underpinned by a 17% increase in networking, a 43% increase in security services, and a 69% increase in other business. Margin news is the real story; however, the business is supported by existing infrastructure. The result is margin expansion across all metrics, profits versus losses, and significant outperformance in adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Adjusted EPS came in at 15 cents, more than double the forecasts, prompting management to issue favorable guidance.
Guidance and the analysts' response are equally strong, with Q3 and full-year revenue targets well above the consensus forecasts. The likely outcome is that momentum continues to build, the Q3 results are stronger than expected, and guidance is improved again. As it stands, management forecasts $187 million in Q3 revenue at the midpoint, an 18% growth compared to last year, and the odds are high for outperformance. Remaining performance obligation, the measure of uncollected and unearned revenue, grew by 38%, outpacing the topline by a wide margin.
MarketBeat tracked six revisions following Fastly’s Q2 release, including three affirmed targets and three price target increases. Together, they lifted the consensus by more than 10% in a matter of days, with the trend leading to the high-end range. The bad news is that consensus assumes fair value near mid-August’s trading levels; the good news is that the high-end range tops out at $30 and is trending higher, likely to be increased as the year progresses.
Institutions Aggressively Accumulate FSLY Stock
Institutional activity is central to FSLY’s stock price action. The group owns nearly 80% of the stock, as of August, and has been aggressively accumulating. The trailing 12-month balance is nearly $4 to $1, with activity ramping in 2025, holding strong in 2026, including the early portion of Q3 just ahead of the release. The likely outcome is that this group continues accumulating, but there is risk that the activity will slow as price action rises. In this scenario, FSLY can move higher, but upside may be limited.
The critical resistance points are near the analyst's high-end target of $30, which is below the existing price action high and the existing highs. Catalysts for higher highs include improving sentiment in the software sector, execution of the new guidance, and upcoming EPS reports. Assuming the upcoming reports reflect the strengths inherent in the Q2 report, execution will be validated and sentiment will firm.
Fastly’s biggest risk is its valuation. As robust as the technical and fundamental indicators are, execution lies between now and fresh stock price highs. With shares trading at over 50x the full-year guidance, the market is pricing in perfection, leaving it vulnerable to disappointments and sharp price corrections. The critical support is near the 2024 highs, approximately $24.50, and would signal a breakdown in market confidence if crossed and the lows were sustained.
The article "Fastly’s Q2 Rally Shows Investors Are Buying the Edge AI Turnaround" first appeared on MarketBeat.
