Farmers do not set the price of the inputs they depend on. Those prices are set bymines, shipping lanes, export quotas, and wars. In 2026, all four moved at once.
The World Bank reports that its fertilizer price index rose more than 12% in the first quarter of 2026, the sixth increase in seven quarters. Urea prices climbed above $850 per metric ton in April, up 80% since February. The index is projected to rise more than 30% across the year.
