A victory for the far right in the French elections could deal a serious blow to climate policy in France, experts have warned, with consequences that could ripple through the European Union and beyond.
The second round of snap polls, whichEmmanuel Macron called after the National Rally (RN) scored big gains in European elections last month, could result in Marine Le Pen’s party securing a majority in the French parliament on Sunday, although nationwide efforts to form a “republican front” may prevent that.
Climate action has barely featured in the election campaign but RN plans to roll back some policies if it wins power. The party has ridden a wave of anger at green measures unleashed during farmers’ protests this year and decried what it calls “punitive ecology”. It has has indicated it wants to overturn a 2035 ban on combustion engine cars, block new wind turbines, scrap low-emissions zones and rip up rules on energy efficiency.
“It’s going to be a big regression, at least for climate policy,” said Christophe Cassou, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research.
France is the EU’s third-biggest polluter of planet-heating gases. Although per person the French emit less than the continental average – a large nuclear fleet means its electricity grid is less carbon intensive that its neighbours – French farms, roads and buildings remain big sources of pollution that the government has struggled to clean up.
Part of its reluctance has come from resistance at home. Huge protests from the gilet jaune (yellow vest) movement rocked the country in 2018. Explosive anger at fuel prices and inequality was fired up by a carbon tax on petrol that Macron tried to introduce after having partially abolished a wealth tax.
Political scientists see limited evidence of a backlash to costly climate action driving far-right support in countries such as France and Germany. A more likely explanation, they say, is that the environment has fallen down voters’ priority lists and issues such as migration and inflation have shot up. The French Greens saw their vote share plummet from 13% to 5% at the European elections, while RN’s rose to 31% – capturing nearly one in every three voters.
But even as RN politicians have relegated the topic of climate action to the sidelines, observers say they will have to reconcile conflicting desires, such as attacking renewables while trying to keep industries competitive, or promoting sovereignty while cutting taxes on fossil fuels, for which France relies on imports.
Benoît Leguet, the director of the I4CE Institute for Climate Economics, said RN would face a “reality check” if it came to power that could force it to reckon with the climate implications of competitiveness, sovereignty and security.
“They will have to confront climate,” he said. “Maybe with a different narrative, but it will be climate policy behind the scenes.”
A win for RN could also slow down climate action at the European level. France has been a vocal champion of EU-wide industrial policies to support clean technologies and Macron has pushed for Europe to build up a green manufacturing base that can hold its own against subsidised competition in the US and China.
“It’s not that the French are the most pro-green deal,” said Sébastien Treyer, the executive director of sustainability thinktank IDDRI. “But they were putting a lot of emphasis on finding new financial means [to make it happen].”
If the far right wins, scientists fear it could hurt global climate diplomacy and usher in attacks on science similar to what happened in the US under the former president Donald Trump.
“As scientists, we have the feeling we are in a trap,” said Cassou, who served as a co-author on the latest IPCC report. “Our goal is to bring facts to help the public discussion … but with scepticism and denial of science it’s very complicated to have a dialogue.”
The rhetoric in France has shifted from a focus on open denial to a kind of “reassurism” that justifies delaying action, he added.
“They keep arguing that the IPCC is alarmist,” said Cassou. But they are “making the confusion between alarmist and alarming”.
