Voters in Italy, Europe’s fourth-largest economy, go to the polls on 25 September to elect a slimmed-down parliament that is predicted to be dominated by a conservative coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party.
What’s the story and why does it matter?
The vote could have far-reaching consequences not only for Italy but for the EU, even though Meloni’s alliance with Matteo Salvini’s hardline, anti-immigration League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia has emphasised its commitment to the bloc and Nato.
Meloni’s “post-fascist” party has surged from 4% of the vote in 2018 to nearly 25%. That may be only a point clear of Enrico Letta’s Democratic party (PD), but her three-party coalition is polling at a total of about 48%, against the centre-left alliance’s share of about 29%.
Meloni, 45, has distanced herself from her party’s neofascist origins, saying the Italian right “has handed fascism over to history”. But she admires Hungary’s nationalist leader, Viktor Orbán, opposes gay rights and wants the navy to turn back migrants.
Her refusal to take part in the previous government – Brothers of Italy has never strayed out of opposition – seems finally to have paid off. Her slogans (“God, family, fatherland” and “Less Europe, but a better Europe”), however, are causing jitters.
How did we get here?
The prime minister, Mario Draghi, a former head of the European Central Bank, who 18 months ago was a popular technocratic choice to run Italy as caretaker at the height of the pandemic, resigned last month after his coalition collapsed.
His year and a half at the helm at the head of a national unity government was a period of relative stability and economic recovery, but the anti-establishment Five Star Movement withdrew its support, and the League and Forza Italia followed suit.
The move was not popular with Italian voters, who hold M5S and the League responsible – further reinforcing the outsider appeal of Brothers of Italy, whose vote share could be twice that of the League’s after starting the year level.
How does the system work?
Under a new law introduced in 2018, just over one-third of parliamentarians in Italy’s upper and lower houses are elected on a first-past-the-post basis, with the remainder chosen by proportional representation through party lists.
Parties can stand alone or as part of a coalition. Single parties need at least 3% of the vote to win seats, while coalitions require 10%. There is no longer an automatic majority for any party or group that wins more than 40% of the vote.
This year, the seats in the lower house have been cut from 630 to 400, with the senate going from 315 seats to 200. The smaller parliament is likely to have a major impact, reducing the size of future majorities and making party loyalty paramount.
Under the new system, voters are issued with two voting slips, one for the senate and one for the lower house, but they can only put one cross on each slip, with that vote counting in the first-past-the-post and proportional representation parts of the election.
Who is running and what do they want?
The centrodestra (centre-right) coalition, dominated by Brothers of Italy, focused on promoting the traditional Italian family, and the populist League, fixated on slashing immigration and weakening the EU’s influence, would pull Italy far to the right.
On the key issue of the day, the cost of living crisis, the coalition has proposed cutting VAT on essential items and energy, renegotiating Italy’s EU recovery plan to take account of surging prices, and encouraging employers to offer energy vouchers to workers.
It also proposes tax cuts across the board, scrapping the controversial “citizens’ wage” poverty-relief scheme but increasing other welfare provisions and increasing pensions, and it wants to reform the EU’s stability pact and introduce direct elections for Italy’s president.
A centre-left coalition collapsed in August days after it was formed, when the centrist Action party withdrew, leaving the PD in an alliance called PD-IDP, made up of four lists of multiple small, leftwing, pro-European and green parties.
It has no common platform, so the PD has released its own, which includes increasing renewable energy and providing free or low-cost electricity from renewable sources to low and medium-income families.
The PD also proposes cutting income tax for medium and low earners, raising net salaries by the equivalent of one month a year, improving pay for teachers and health workers, and introducing a minimum hourly wage of €9 (£7.80).
It has also promised to make it easier for the children of immigrants to obtain Italian citizenship, toughen penalties for violence or discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community, legalise cannabis and lower the voting age from 18 to 16.
The M5S, led by the former prime minister Giuseppe Conte, is running alone. It split in two when the former leader Luigi Di Maio left to form his own party, Civic Commitment (Impegno Civico), and M5S’s support has plunged from 32% in the 2018 elections to about 10%.
It wants to issue common EU debt to create an energy recovery fund, review the stability pact and allow workers to take home more of their gross salaries. Many of its social policies are similar to those of the PD.
Azione has formed an alliance with the former prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva, which the two parties call “a third pole”. It is currently polling at about 5%.
Who will win and what happens afterwards?
Letta has insisted the outcome is not certain, pointing to polls suggesting 40% of the electorate either will not vote or have not yet decided for whom to cast their ballots. In reality, though, a centre-right victory seems all but certain.
While Meloni has said Italy will continue to support Ukraine, a hard-right coalition would be bound to raise questions about Italy’s policy, given Salvini and Berlusconi’s previous ties with Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin.
With growth slowing and inflation rising, Meloni lacks the experience and the credibility of Draghi when it comes to managing Italy’s stagnant, high-debt economy.
