Police are struggling to cope with a surge in potentially violent teenagers being referred to Britain’s counterterrorism programme Prevent as cases reach a record high in the wake of the Southport attack.
A total of 8,778 individuals were flagged to the government’s anti-extremism scheme in the year to March 2025, Home Office figures show. This is up 27 per cent on the previous year and is the highest number since the current data series began in April 2015.
In the more than half of the cases – a total of 4,917 referrals – the individual was found to subscribe to no specific ideology or belief system. Only 7 per cent of these cases were deemed suitable for further intervention by Prevent’s anti-radicalisation programmes.
The figures come as Britain’s most senior counterterrorism officer called this week for an increase in the capacity of mental health services to help manage the rising number of referrals involving individuals with no clear ideology.
He said there had been a significant increase in referrals since the brutal murders at a children’s dance class in Southport in July 2024.
The attacker in that incident, Axel Rudakubana, was referred to Prevent three times amid fears over his fixation with violence, but his case was closed due to a lack of distinct ideology. A review later found there was sufficient information to refer him to a panel for further assessment.
Before Southport, referrals were expected to hit similar numbers as previous years, but cases started to rise around the time of Rudakubana’s trial in January.
The 3,287 referrals in the following three months is the highest number in a single quarter since data began and is thought to be linked to increased vigilance following the shocking case.
Assistant commissioner Laurence Taylor warned police are grappling with a “very significant increase in the volume of people either with mixed ideologies, no clear ideology, or very complex [problems]”.
He called for strengthened capacity and mental health support, warning: “Counterterrorism policing cannot take on everything.”
He added: “I don’t believe we have the capacity in the system to deal with the complexities that people are displaying that are coming into our purview, so through Prevent or other means.
“So, I do think the capacity needs increasing. I do think the system needs strengthening, and it takes that whole approach, so that we can stop people being drawn into terrorism in the first instance. And that is really important when it comes to mental health; that requires some very specialist skills.”
Responding to the figures, David Anderson, a crossbench peer who served as the UK’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation from 2011 to 2017, said: “Prevent is the canary in the coalmine. These figures show that established ideologies are being joined by crude but potentially deadly belief systems, such as a nihilistic fascination with extreme violence.
“They also point to the capacity of terrorist movements to exploit mental ill health and neurodiversity in the young.”
Prevent is the government’s anti-extremism scheme and is designed to divert people from becoming involved in terrorism.
The data, published on Thursday, also showed that almost four in 10 referrals involved 11- to 15-year-olds, who made up the largest proportion with 3,192 cases, followed by 16- to 17-year-olds, who accounted for 1,178 cases. A total of 345 children referred were aged 10 and under.
Just over a third of people flagged to the programme had at least one mental health or neurodiversity condition, the figures show.
Only 17 per cent of cases referred to Prevent last year were adopted by the scheme for further intervention. Following initial screening and assessment, cases deemed at risk of radicalisation may be passed to a multi-agency “Channel panel”. Chaired by local authorities, these panels determine the extent of a person’s susceptibility to radicalisation, and whether a tailored package of support is necessary to address that risk.
Of the 8,778 referrals made to Prevent in the year to March, 1,727 individuals were discussed by a Channel panel and 1,472 were adopted as Channel cases for further support.
Alex Carlile, also a crossbench peer who served as the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation between 2001 and 2011, said the figures are “unsurprising”, adding that it is crucial that Channel panel assessments follow a consistent methodology to avoid “unnecessary” Prevent involvement, particularly in respect of children.
He told The Independent: “They [the figures] reflect increased concern about potentially violent political extremism, which inevitably results in more referrals.”
Security minister Dan Jarvis said: “We must direct people away from the dangerous path of radicalisation – whether it be Islamist ideology, Extreme Right-Wing or those seeking mass violence.
“Prevent has diverted 6,000 people away from violent ideologies, stopping terrorists, keeping our streets and country safe.”
