The 2023 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
AFC divisional previews
East | North | South | West
NFC divisional previews
East | North | South | West
Chicago Bears
2022 record: 3-14
Notable coaching and system changes
Year 1 under head coach Matt Eberflus was a painful one. After opening the season 2-1, Chicago would lose 13 of their final 14 to secure the No. 1 overall pick, which they then traded for a king’s ransom intended to jump-start the rebuild. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s job is to continue developing Justin Fields, who thus far has shown far more as a runner than a passer. Alan Williams returns as defensive coordinator.
Key free-agent additions
- RB Travis Homer
- RB D’Onta Foreman
- WR DJ Moore (trade)
- TE Robert Tonyan
Key free-agent departures
Key draft additions
- RB Roschon Johnson
- WR Tyler Scott
Quarterback preview
After two NFL campaigns, Justin Fields remains an enigma. He’s made some spectacular plays and became a legit fantasy QB1 on the strength of his 1,143 yards and eight TDs rushing — only six RBs ran for more yards than Fields — but the jury is still very much out on him as a passer. There’s no denying he’s been hamstrung by poor offensive line play and a dearth of weapons, but Chicago’s 377 passing attempts last year were the fewest in the NFL since the 2009 New York Jets (393), which suggests a possible lack of trust in Fields’ decision making.
Will better talent outside and a first-round offensive lineman convince Getsy to open things up? And if he does, is that to Fields’ benefit as a fantasy producer? Fields enters 2023 as a top-10 fantasy QB, but if you draft him, you’ll want to secure a quality alternative.
Running back preview
With David Montgomery gone, the Bears will look to Khalil Herbert (129-731-4) and D’Onta Foreman (203-914-5 w/ CAR) to lead the backfield. After doing nothing his first four years in the NFL, Foreman opened eyes with Tennessee in 2021 when Derrick Henry was injured. He built on that in Carolina, where he took over as the lead back following the Christian McCaffrey trade. Foreman should have plenty of life left, though his lack of ability as a receiver limits him to early downs. He’s an RB4.
Underutilized as a rookie, Herbert became a true complementary back to Montgomery under Getsy, who’d seen the Green Bay Packers use a two-back approach to great success. The problem here is that, like Foreman, Herbert is better as a runner than a receiver (23 career grabs in 30 games), so there’s no obvious solution on passing downs, unless one of them improves in that area. Consider Herbert an RB3/RB4.
While Roschon Johnson played behind Bijan Robinson at Texas, the rookie could move up the depth chart in a hurry with a strong offseason. The converted quarterback has good power and reliable hands — something the players above him lack. For now, he’s one to monitor but may offer the most upside of the lot.
Wide receiver preview
A year ago, the Bears had arguably the worst group of receivers in the NFL. Not anymore. Chicago acquired DJ Moore from Carolina as part of the trade for the No. 1 pick, giving them a proven producer on the outside. In five seasons with the Panthers, Moore averaged 73 receptions, 1,040 yards, and four TDs. While he doesn’t belong in the upper echelon of NFL wideouts, he’s probably the best receiver Chicago has had since Brandon Marshall. Given the uncertainty around the Bears’ willingness to air it out, however, Moore should be viewed as a WR3.
Given that it ended up being the 32nd overall pick, the Bears overpaid for Chase Claypool. Still, his size (6-foot-4, 238 pounds) makes Claypool an entirely different commodity than Moore or Darnell Mooney, both of whom hover around the 6-foot mark. Mooney topped 1,000 yards in Fields’ rookie season and entered 2022 as WR1 but produced just 493 yards before an ankle injury ended his season after 12 games. Claypool, meanwhile, caught 14 passes in seven games following the trade and hasn’t done much since his TD-heavy rookie year. In this offense, neither Mooney nor Claypool are more than late-round curiosities.
Tight end preview
Cole Kmet led Chicago in receptions (50), receiving yards (544), and touchdowns (7). The last figure was a particularly nice surprise after Kmet had zero scores on 60 grabs in 2021. The Bears added Robert Tonyan (53-470-2 w/ GB) in free agency following five seasons in Green Bay. Tonyan had 11 TDs in 2020 but hasn’t been the same since tearing his ACL in October 2021. While Tonyan adds talent to the position, it undercuts Kmet’s fringe TE1 appeal.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
While the Herbert-Foreman combination is the likely one-two punch for the Bears in 2023, don’t be too quick to write off Roschon Johnson. The rookie’s ticket to playing time is as a third-down back, something he looks better suited to than either veteran, assuming he doesn’t outperform them in camp and ascend. In deeper leagues, he could be targeted late.
Bust potential/overvalued players
Over his first nine NFL games, Chase Claypool caught 39 passes for 559 yards and eight touchdowns. In 37 games since, he has 128 receptions, 1,625 yards, and four TDs. That’s quite the drop off. If you draft Claypool, you’re betting on him reversing that trajectory in the first offense to throw fewer than 400 passes in 13 years.
Detroit Lions
2022 record: 9-8
Notable coaching and system changes
When the Lions started 1-6 last season, it looked as though head coach Dan Campbell might not see the end of his second year on the job. Instead, Detroit rattled off eight wins in their final 10 games, and Campbell suddenly finds himself leading a popular NFC North favorite. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson garnered some buzz as a head coaching candidate but decided to return. Aaron Glenn runs the defense.
Key free-agent additions
- RB David Montgomery
- WR Marvin Jones
Key free-agent departures
- RB D’Andre Swift (trade)
- RB Jamaal Williams
- RB Justin Jackson
- WR DJ Chark Jr.
Key draft additions
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs
- TE Sam LaPorta
- QB Hendon Hooker
Quarterback preview
Viewed by most as a placeholder, Jared Goff reinvigorated his career in 2022, passing for 4,438 yards and 29 TDs against just seven interceptions. While those are solid numbers, Goff was brutal on the road, throwing just six of those 29 TDs in eight games away from Ford Field. Add those road woes to a lack of mobility, and Goff suddenly becomes less than the sum of his parts for fantasy owners. You can draft Goff as a QB2, but until he proves otherwise you can only start him at home.
In the unlikely event that the season goes sideways, Hendon Hooker could get a look. Hooker is recovering from a torn ACL and was selected with an eye on the future, but things change fast in the NFL, and if he gets on the field Hooker’s athleticism would be worth monitoring.
Running back preview
The tandem of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift combined for 2,070 yards and 25 TDs last year. Neither returns. Williams joined New Orleans via free agency, and Swift was traded after the team shockingly selected Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. The new-look backfield will feature Gibbs and David Montgomery, who joins Detroit after spending his first four seasons with Chicago, where he averaged 1,233 combined yards and 7.5 touchdowns. Gibbs has plus speed and is a capable receiver out of the backfield, similar to the departed Swift, but clearly the team hopes the rookie shows the durability Swift never did during three years in Motown.
While you don’t use the 12th overall pick on a running back not to use him, right now it feels like Montgomery will be the lead back with Gibbs used more situationally as he grows into the NFL game. Still, there’s more upside with Gibbs than Montgomery, who has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in his career, making the rookie a low-end RB2, and the veteran a midrange RB3.
Wide receiver preview
There were some questions whether Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s strong close to 2021 was a byproduct of limited options, but by posting a 106-1,161-6 line in his sophomore season the USC alum established himself as a top possession receiver. The big plays may be in short supply — his 11.0 YPC ranked 73rd in the league — and you’d like to see more in the red zone (11 TDs in 196 receptions), but St. Brown has shown enough to be a high-end WR2.
Coming off a torn ACL in his final collegiate game, Jameson Williams played limited snaps over the final six weeks, catching one pass. He was penciled in as the No. 2 receiver heading into 2023, but that’ll be on hold as he serves a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Obviously, Williams has first-round talent, but he’s still a complete unknown at the highest level. He’s an intriguing late-round stash candidate.
Veterans Josh Reynolds (38-479-3) and Marvin Jones (46-529-3), back after a two-year stint in Jacksonville, will keep the position warm during Williams’ suspension and serve tertiary roles thereafter. Maybe one of them will provide short-term value, but it’s hard to advocate selecting either one.
Tight end preview
Following the trade of T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota, the Lions used a mix of Brock Wright, James Mitchell, and Shane Zylstra. Look for rookie Sam LaPorta to be given every chance to be the starter in 2023. He has good hands, shows the ability to make plays in traffic, and is a talented route runner. While LaPorta isn’t worth drafting, you could add him to your watch list.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
When you look at Detroit’s offense, the only returning playmaker is St. Brown. Even though he won’t make his 2023 debut until Week 7, Jameson Williams has far more upside than any of the team’s other pass catchers. Coming off a rookie season in which he barely played and being suspended should help Williams remain available late in drafts, too.
Bust potential/overvalued players
There are absolutely things to like about David Montgomery, but he didn’t show much explosiveness during his four years in Chicago. Playing in an offense that ran for over 3,000 yards last season, Montgomery averaged 3.9 YPC; compare that to Justin Fields (7.1) and Khalil Herbert (5.7). If Gibbs clicks right away, the veteran might have a smaller role than anticipated.
Green Bay Packers
2022 record: 8-9
Notable coaching and system changes
During his four seasons as head coach, Matt LaFleur has gone 47-19 with three NFC North banners. That success has always come with an asterisk, however, with much of the credit being given to Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers gone, LaFleur has the chance to show he’s as good as his record suggests. Adam Stenavich is back as offensive coordinator, though MLF calls the plays. While Joe Barry appeared to be on the hot seat, he returns for a third year in charge of a defense loaded with first-round picks.
Key free-agent additions
- None
Key free-agent departures
- QB Aaron Rodgers (trade)
- WR Allen Lazard
- WR Randall Cobb (unsigned)
- TE Robert Tonyan
- PK Mason Crosby (unsigned)
Key draft additions
- TE Luke Musgrave
- WR Jayden Reed
- TE Tucker Kraft
- WR Dontayvion Wicks
- RB Lew Nichols III
- QB Sean Clifford
- PK Anders Carlson
Quarterback preview
For three seasons, Jordan Love has learned behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The Packers think he’s ready to take the reins. We’ll see if they’re right. From a physical standpoint, there’s much to like about Love, who has excellent size, good athleticism, and a strong arm. He hasn’t played much NFL football, though, and with a supporting cast marked by youth, growing pains are to be expected. Still, the upside is real. Love would be an ideal fit as a QB2 behind a reliable starter.
Running back preview
With the departure of Rodgers, Aaron Jones becomes Green Bay’s top playmaker. The two biggest knocks on Jones in recent years have been limited usage, ostensibly to keep Jones fresh for the postseason, and lack of red-zone work. It’s possible the switch to Love improves things on both fronts. There’s no guarantee the Packers will be in the playoff hunt this year, so saving their bullets may be a moot point. Also, Rodgers liked to throw the ball in goal-to-go situations. Maybe with Love, LaFleur will lean on his talented backs to punch it in. Jones holds value as a low-end RB1.
AJ Dillon could see a larger role as well. The bruising tailback was a mild disappointment last season, posting a 186-770-7 line that was a small step back from his 2021 output. Given his size, he wasn’t as successful as you’d expect in short-yardage and goal-line situations, either, though how much of that falls on him versus not playing to his strengths is debatable. Entering a contract year in an evolving offense, Dillon is a fringe RB3 with upside.
Wide receiver preview
The youth movement is in full effect in Green Bay. Six first- and second-year wideouts could make the roster. That group is led by Christian Watson, who shook off a slow start and some injury issues to compile 681 total yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie. Nearly all that production came from Week 10 on, and it has raised expectations for a Year 2 leap. With elite speed and athleticism, Watson holds enough upside to be drafted as a borderline top-20 WR.
After Watson, the early expectation is that Romeo Doubs (42-425-3) and Jayden Reed will start on the outside and in the slot, respectively. Doubs earned rave reviews in training camp and preseason, and he was the rookie receiver to hit the ground running in 2022. He suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 9, though, which cost him all but four games the rest of the way. Reed has the versatility to be used in multiple roles, though he’ll likely get most of his action in the slot. While Doubs could be a late-round target, Reed is no more than a watch-list candidate.
Of the other young wideouts, the name to file away is Samori Toure. The seventh-rounder caught just five balls as a rookie, but he has been frequently mentioned by the coaching staff.
Tight end preview
Green Bay overhauled the tight end position this offseason, allowing Robert Tonyan to leave in free agency, and then spending a pair of Day 2 picks on Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, respectively. Musgrave dealt with injuries last year at Oregon State, but his physical tools are off the charts, and he’s thought to have a high ceiling. Kraft, who can line up in various spots, isn’t as refined as Musgrave but could see plenty of playing time early. It’s tough to make an impact as a rookie tight end, but Musgrave bears watching.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
Who could it be other than Jordan Love? A year ago, the Packers were so worried about life after Rodgers, they handed him a monster extension. This year, they couldn’t usher No. 12 out the door quickly enough. What changed? In short, they believe Love can play. If they’re right, Love could deliver late-round value.
Bust potential/overvalued players
The idea that the Packers are suddenly going to be a buttoned-up, run-heavy offense isn’t grounded in reality, so if you’re inflating AJ Dillon‘s outlook on the basis that his usage will balloon you may be disappointed. Perhaps what we’ve seen from Dillon the past two years is as good as it’s going to get.
Minnesota Vikings
2022 record: 13-4
Notable coaching and system changes
If you wanted a counterpoint to Bill Parcells’ famous “you are what your record says you are” line, look at last year’s Vikings. Head coach Kevin O’Connell went 13-4 in his first season with a minus-3 point differential, and then watched as the front office treated the offseason almost like a rebuild. Expect fewer wins in 2023. Wes Phillips is back as the offensive coordinator, while Brian Flores replaces Ed Donatell on defense.
Key free-agent additions
- None
Key free-agent departures
- WR Adam Thielen
- TE Irv Smith
Key draft additions
- WR Jordan Addison
- QB Jaren Hall
- RB DeWayne McBride
Quarterback preview
Statistically speaking, the switch from Mike Zimmer to O’Connell didn’t have much of an impact on Kirk Cousins, who passed for 4,547 yards, 29 TDs, and 14 INTs last year. While it was his highest yardage output since signing with the Vikings back in 2018, the interceptions were a career high, and it was just his second season of fewer than 30 TDs with Minnesota. Durable and reliable, Cousins is an ideal QB2 to pair with a risk/reward starter.
Running back preview
For the first time in his six seasons, Dalvin Cook appeared in every game. Smarter usage doubtless played a role as the oft-injured back averaged 15.5 carries per game; that was down from 19.2 in 2021 and 22.3 in 2020. Despite that, Cook posted a career-low 4.4 yards per carry, and the Vikings reportedly shopped him before the draft. That wasn’t a huge surprise considering he’ll be 28 in August and has a lengthy list of injuries over his career. He ultimately returns as the lead back for Minnesota, and in that role, Cook carries solid RB2 value.
It was a bit of a surprise to see Alexander Mattison re-signed to a two-year deal after a career-low 74 carries in 2022. Perhaps it was a hedge in case they traded Cook. While he has flashed when given the chance, Mattison has always been more backup than complement. As such, his appeal is nominal beyond being a handcuff or standalone RB5.
Wide receiver preview
Three seasons into his NFL career, Justin Jefferson is unequivocally on the short list for best receiver in the NFL. The LSU product led the league in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809) while scoring eight times. Still just 24, it’s entirely possible that Jefferson can reach another level. He’s a top-tier WR1 and certainly belongs in the discussion for the first overall pick in fantasy drafts.
With the Vikings moving on from Adam Thielen, they used their first-round pick on Jordan Addison. At 5-foot-11, 173 pounds, he’s on the small side, but he runs crisp routes and has good speed. He’ll likely man the slot while K.J. Osborn lines up opposite Jefferson on the outside. Osborn didn’t get a ton of looks as the No. 3 option last year, finishing with a mediocre 60-650-5 line, but he has a good chance to outpace Addison while the rookie develops. Osborn could fit on your fantasy roster as a WR4/WR5 with Addison a late-round stash or watch-list occupant.
Tight end preview
Acquired prior to Week 9, T.J. Hockenson showed immediate chemistry with Cousins. In nine games with Minnesota (not counting a meaningless Week 18), Hockenson caught 59 passes for 503 yards and three touchdowns. Over a full season, that’s a 111-950-6 pace. While it remains a mystery why the 6-foot-5, 248-pounder can’t be more of a force in the red zone, Hockenson’s heavy involvement makes him a steady TE1.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
While the selection of Addison will draw more attention, K.J. Osborn appears better positioned to deliver statistical value in 2023. Osborn didn’t make the leap some thought he would last year, posting very similar numbers to 2021, but with Thielen gone you could make a case for Osborn as a low-end WR3.
Bust potential/overvalued players
There are plenty of worrisome indicators for Dalvin Cook. He turns 28 before the season, his yards per touch were down last year despite lighter usage, and the team considered trading him. Fantasy owners are used to calling his name in Round 1, but he’s better suited as an RB2 now.
