The 2022 NFL draft is over, which means fantasy football managers will begin preparations for their upcoming drafts.
While there is still a lot of time before the redraft ones take place, those in dynasty leagues are already going through their rookie-only drafts. Doing so now might be a bit early, but it’s a nice little segway into preparing for the regular season. Since this is a dynasty approach, the short-term implications aren’t as much of a concern.
Rookie dynasty rankings are always fun. They are typically are met with reasonable and constructive comments.
We have no idea how these players will pan out, but given that fantasy football is a numbers-driven game, we can use historical data and a bit of subjectivity to give a range of outcomes for a certain player.
That’s what’s most important here. Instead of looking at these rookies (or any player in fantasy football) as if there is a rigid outlook, it’s best to take the approach with a range of outcome in mind.
Anything can happen with these rookies. We know that. But we are—or should be—talking about the highest probability outcome. What is most likely a player going to turn into given what we know about similar players from the past?
That’s why I’ve spent the last few years trying to build a regression model to project an incoming player’s PPR points-per-game over his first three seasons. It’s still very early in the process, and it’s likely to change as time goes on. But I feel I’m finally at a good starting point.
But I wanted you to know how I go through my rankings. It’s mostly historical data that involves draft capital, market share statistics, age-adjusted production and athletic testing. That spits out a number and then I place the players into tiers. Some subjectivity is involved based on landing spot and overall skill sets.
If you have any questions or simply want to bash me for these rankings, hit me up on Twitter (@KevinHickey11).
So without further ado, here are my fantasy football rookie rankings for the 2022 draft class:
