Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point: In the 1998 NFL draft, Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were the two unquestioned top quarterbacks in the class. The Colts had a tough decision to make with the No. 1 pick, and they chose Manning. He went on to become a 14-time Pro Bowler, win two Super Bowls, multiple MVPs and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The Colts chose wisely.
Imagine, on the other hand, if they had selected Leaf? He went on to play just three seasons, two with the team that drafted him, the Chargers. He had zero Pro Bowls, zero MVPs, zero Super Bowls and finished his career with a 4-17 record.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Chargers general manager Bobby Beathard after the 1998 draft.
With that said, I’m going to be working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and tell you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence
We’ll continue this exercise with a look at Justin Fields and Justin Herbert. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, these two quarterbacks are coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the fifth round of drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Chicago, Luke Getsy heads into his second season as the offensive coordinator. Last year, his offense produced 580 pass attempts (14th-most) and finished 11th in terms of pass percentage overall. The Bears acquired DJ Moore and Robert Tonyan to boost the passing game in the offseason, giving Fields a better core of receivers that also includes incumbents Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet.
The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, whose offenses in Dallas (2019-22) averaged 610 pass attempts. The Cowboys never finished better than 11th in pass percentage, however. On a positive note, Dak Prescott averaged over 20 points per game in his 49 starts with Moore running the show. The Chargers also added rookie wideout Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft.
Winner: Herbert
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union/USA Today Network
Passing Skills
Fields isn’t an overly prolific passer, posting just 2,242 yards with 17 touchdowns and 11 picks in his first full season as a starter. He was also one of the league’s least accurate passers, finishing third-from-last in on-target pass percentage among quarterbacks with at least 12 starts. Fields was also dead last in terms of completion percentage. The Bears hope the addition of Moore and the return of Mooney help.
Herbert was amazing in the stat sheets in his first two NFL seasons, averaging more than 290 passing yards and over 22 fantasy points per game. What’s more, he threw for 69 touchdown passes. That’s the most of any quarterback in his first two seasons in NFL history. Herbert regressed a bit last year, though, averaging just 16.5 points. However, he still threw for 4,739 yards. That was second-most in the league.
Winner: Herbert
Rushing Skills
This of course isn’t even close. One of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league, Fields rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games a season ago. That is the second-most yards on the ground for a quarterback ever in a single campaign. Fields also scored eight touchdowns as a runner. That was second at the position behind Jalen Hurts (13).
Herbert is a relatively mobile quarterback, rushing for a combined 683 yards and eight touchdowns in his 49 career games. That’s a nice fantasy cherry on top of his passing production, but Fields is tough to beat (unless you’re Lamar Jackson).
Winner: Fields
Durability
Fields played in 15 games last season, missing two contests with shoulder and hip injuries. That’s one of the bigger risks with Fields, whose elite-level mobility and style of play also puts him in far more danger of suffering injuries. Still, he’s been mostly durable dating back to his college days and can play through injuries.
Herbert hasn’t missed a start in his NFL career, despite playing a lot of last season with a fracture to his rib cartilage. That could have and likely was part of the reason he experienced some regression in the stat sheets during the course of the year.
Winner: Herbert
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Strength of Schedule
Fields gets a slight edge here, as his schedule ranks as the second easiest among quarterbacks. He gets to play the Lions and Vikings twice, not to mention other favorable opponents like the Chiefs, Raiders and Panthers. Herbert has the fourth-best slate, facing the Chiefs (2), Raiders (2), Titans, Vikings and Bears.
Winner: Fields
And the Pick Is…
While Herbert is the winner in three of our five categories and might be the better pick for fantasy managers looking for more of a “sure thing” (if that even exists), Fields still gets the nod for me. That’s based on his rushing skills, not to mention the fact that the Bears added talent to the passing game and improved their offensive line in the offseason. You’ll get a winner either way, but Fields is my call.
