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Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point: in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs needed a starting running back and drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd overall pick (Round 1). He went ahead of Jonathan Taylor, who was picked by the Indianapolis Colts with the 41st overall pick (Round 2).
In his four years, Edwards-Helaire has failed to rush for more than 803 yards in a single season. He’s failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark in terms of scrimmage yards in each of the last three seasons. On the flip side, Taylor has rushed for over 1,000 yards twice. That includes a 2021 season when the talented back won the rushing title (1,811 yards).
Obviously, the Chiefs chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like a bum.
With that said, it’s time to bring back our “Making the Call” series here at Sports Illustrated. In the series, Jen Piacenti and I will be looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and tell you who you should pick.
Since we’re talking running backs, let’s compare Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley. They’re coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the first round of drafts. Gibbs is going at 11.4 overall over the last two weeks, while Barkley, newly on the Eagles, is being picked on average, at 14.8 overall.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In 2023, the Lions ranked 11th in run percentage and ran the football 500 times. That was the seventh-most in the league. Gibbs made up for 182 of those carries, averaging a strong 5.2 yards per rush. However, he also lost 219 carries to teammate David Montgomery. The duo split the backfield touches almost right down the middle, too. Gibbs also had the benefit of running behind the second-best run-blocking offensive line, according to PFF.
Barkley was a member of the Giants last season, but for our purposes we need to look at how the Eagles offense will run the ball in 2024. To find that out, we need to look at the 2023 Chargers. Why? Well, their former offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, will now lead Barkley’s offense. Los Angeles was 26th in run percentage and 24th in carries, but they did not have a true featured back like Barkley. Now in Philadelphia, he’ll be running behind the third-best run-blocking offensive line. By comparison, the Giants were 30th in 2023.
Winner: Push
Rushing Skills
Gibbs averaged an impressive 5.2 yards per rush as a rookie, ranking 12th in yards after first contact and ninth in broken tackles. He was also tied for second in explosive rushes (runs of 12-plus yards), and his 44 red-zone looks tied for 10th. Montgomery, not Gibbs, led the Lions backfield in terms of red zone looks, seeing five more than his teammate.
Barkley averaged just 3.9 yards rush last season, which is down from the 4.5 yards per rush he averaged the previous season. He still tied for seventh in yards after contact, however, but he broke just 15 tackles (tied for 29th). Barkley was tied for 10th in explosive runs and was tied for 14th in red zone looks. One thing to keep in mind as we look forward is that the Eagles lead running back has averaged a combined five yards per carry since 2021.
Winner: Push
Receiving Skills
Gibbs ranked eighth in targets and tied for ninth in receptions among backs as a rookie. He also ranked second in terms of dropped passes at the position with eight. In all, 37% of his fantasy points came from receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches.
Obviously, Barkley has a larger resume than Gibbs. He’s hauled in at least 41 passes in each of his five “full” NFL seasons. That includes a rookie year when he had 91 catches. Last season, 42% of his fantasy points came as a receiver out of the backfield.
Winner: Barkley
Durability
Gibbs hasn’t had a lot of injury issues between college and the pros, but he’s been given a "high risk" label by Sports Injury Predictor. Barkley has had a serious knee injury during his time in the NFL, not to mention a nagging ankle injury a few years back. Still, he’s been active in 30 of a possible 34 games over the last two years. Where Gibbs wins, for me at least, is that Gibbs is much younger and had far less wear and tear on his body.
Winner: Gibbs
Strength of Schedule
Based on 2023 season result, Gibbs and Barkley are in the bottom half of the league in terms of strength of schedule in 2024. Neither has a significant advantage.
Winner: Push
Vegas Odds
Barkley is currently at +1600 to win Offensive Player of the Year, which ranks fourth among running backs. Gibbs comes in at +2800. Barkey is also +650 (third) to win the rushing title, while Gibbs is at +2000 (T-9). Coincidentally, both Barkley and Gibbs are at +900 to lead the league in total touchdowns (rushing and receiving), in 2024.
Winner: Barkley
And the Pick Is …
These two running backs are close in value, but I’m going against ADP and picking Barkley. Despite playing in an awful offense and running behind a back line, Barkley still finished as the RB12 last season. What’s more, he averaged 0.2 fewer points per game than Gibbs. If he can do that in New York’s bad offense, imagine the kind of fantasy numbers he can post in Philadelphia! Barkley also has no competition for significant touches, while Gibbs will remain in some form of a backfield committee in Detroit with Montgomery.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Rankings: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Saquon Barkley.
