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Choosing the right player can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point: in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders had the No. 12 overall pick. In desperate need of a wide receiver, they selected Henry Ruggs III out of Alabama. CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk were all still on the board and available to be picked at that spot.
Henry would go on to post fewer than 500 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons before an off-the-field incident ended his career. On the flip side, Lamb and Jefferson have been superstars, and Aiyuk has become one of the league’s better wide receivers.
The Raiders chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like a bum.
With that said, it’s time to bring back our “Making the Call” series here at Sports Illustrated. In the series, Jen Piacenti and I will be looking at two players from the same position who have a near-identical average draft position (ADP) and tell you who you should pick.
Since we’re talking wide receivers, let’s compare two superstars in Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. At the National Fantasy Football Championships, they’re coming off the board within two picks of one another, both in the first round. Chase is going at 5.9 overall over the last two weeks, while Jefferson is being picked on average, at 7.3 overall.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Cincinnati, the Bengals ranked second in pass percentage (63.5%) last season. The 2024 version will have a new offensive coordinator in Dan Pitcher, but I wouldn’t expect a lot of changes in the pass attack. After all, he had been the team’s quarterbacks coach since 2020. Joe Burrow was hurt for seven games in 2023, but he averaged around the same number of pass attempts per game (36.5) as he did the previous year (37.9). Regarding the total target share, 62.9% of their pass attempts went to their wide receivers.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell will once again lead the Vikings offense. His team threw the football 63.3% of the time last season, which ranked third in the league, and his field generals threw the ball 37.1 times per game. That includes Kirk Cousins, who averaged 34.5 attempts in eight games before tearing his Achilles tendon. When Nick Mullens took over for an injured Cousins, he averaged 33.8 attempts in his four starts. In terms of the target share, 53.4% of their pass attempts went to wideouts. That total was 60.6% the previous year, however, when Cousins and Jefferson were both healthy.
Winner: Push
Receiving Skills
This is really like comparing a Ferrari to a Lamborghini. These two wideouts are studs, but we can still look at the numbers and see if there are any distinguishable differences. I’m going to look at the last two seasons since both players missed time with injuries and played with backup quarterbacks for part of 2023.
In his last 28 games, Chase has seen an average of 10 targets, 6.7 catches, 80.8 yards, and has scored 16 touchdowns. He’s sixth in yards after the catch, tied for 23rd in explosive catches (16-plus yards), tied for 19th in big plays (20-plus yards), and eighth in broken tackles. Chase is also tied for fourth in red zone targets, and he’s tied for eighth in terms of touchdown catches in this timeframe.
As for Jefferson, he’s also been a stat sheet stuffer over his last 27 games. He’s seen an average of 10.5 targets per game, which leads all wideouts, and his 7.3 catches per game is second. Jefferson has found the end zone 14 times, and no player at his position has put up more yards per game (106.8) since 2022. Jefferson also ranks ninth in yards after catch, second in explosive plays, third in big plays and he’s seen 29 red zone targets (sixth).
Winner: Jefferson
Quarterbacks
This might have been a debatable topic last year, but not in 2024. The Bengals will return Joe Burrow, who has been a fantasy star in the NFL and has a great rapport with Chase due to their time together in college at LSU.
On the flip side, the loss of Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons as a free agent leaves the Vikings with a journeyman quarterback in Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback after losing rookie J.J. McCarthy for the season. Obviously, Chase is the easy winner here.
Winner: Chase
Durability
Chase has missed a combined six games over the last two years due to injuries, including four last year because of a hip strain. Our friends at Sports Injury Predictor still give him a high durability rating (5.0), however, with a 7.9% chance of suffering an injury per game.
Jefferson missed seven games last season with a strained hamstring, but he hadn’t missed any playing time in his previous three years in the NFL. Sports Injury Predictor ranks Jefferson as a very highly durable player (5.0) as well, with just a 6.5% chance of suffering an injury per game.
Winner: Jefferson
Strength of Schedule
Based on the RotoWire Strength of Schedule model, Chase and Jefferson are in the middle of the league in terms of their upcoming slate. Neither has a significant advantage.
Winner: Push
Vegas Odds
Jefferson is currently at +13000 to win the NFL’s MVP, while Chase comes in at +1500. In terms of the Offensive Player of the Year honors listed at DraftKings, Chase ranks fourth at +1200, while Jefferson is tied for fifth (+1500).
Chase has a slight edge in the most receiving yards (+900) over Jefferson (+1000), not to mention the most touchdown catches. In that category, Chase comes in at +1000 compared to Jefferson, who is right behind at +1100.
Winner: Chase
And the Pick Is…
Drafting Chase or Jefferson is a win. And most in the fantasy football world would agree that the big difference is the quarterbacks, where Chase has a massive advantage. Still, I feel like Jefferson is the better player (by a slight margin), and I’m not worried that the loss of Cousins will mean a death blow to his statistics. Quite to the contrary, in fact. In his five games without Cousins and with Nick Mullens under center last season, Jefferson averaged 6.4 catches, 100.6 yards and scored two touchdowns. That equated to 18.6 points per game.
By comparison, Chase has averaged more than 18.6 points in a single season just once. That came in 2022. In his other two years, he averaged 17.9 points and 16.4 points. So, even with a less-than-stellar quarterback, Jefferson has proven he can put up good totals that are on the same level as Chase. Also, keep in mind that in the six games Chase played without Burrow last season, he averaged a very modest 12.2 points.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Rankings: Ja'Marr Chase vs. Justin Jefferson .
