Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 2020 NFL draft, the Raiders had the No. 12 overall pick. Needing a wide receiver, they selected Henry Ruggs out of Alabama. Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk and Marquise Brown were all still available.
Ruggs posted fewer than 500 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons before an off-the-field incident ended his career. On the flip side, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk and Brown have all had varying levels of success with their respective teams.
The Raiders chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Raiders head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert | Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry | Rhamondre Stevenson or Travis Etienne | Kenneth Walker III or Jahmyr Gibbs | Ja’Marr Chase or Cooper Kupp
I started with the quarterbacks and running backs, and now I’ll continue this exercise with the wideouts. This look pits two of the biggest stars at the position, CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, they’re coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the first round of drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Dallas, head coach Mike McCarthy will take over the play-calling duties in 2023. His offenses during his time in Green Bay were pass heavy, but that makes a lot of sense when you consider his quarterbacks were Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. In two seasons under McCarthy, Favre averaged 574 pass attempts (16 games). As for Rodgers, he averaged 33 pass attempts in the 101 games he played from 2008-14 before McCarthy gave up the play-calling duties. He took back those duties from 2016-18, during which time Rodgers averaged 37 pass attempts per game and averaged 593 over a full 16-game season. His current quarterback, Dak Prescott, averaged nearly 37 pass attempts in his 49 starts under the direction of former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
The Raiders offense will once again be led by head coach Josh McDaniels. While he was a long-time offensive coordinator for the Patriots, he had the best quarterback to ever lace up the cleats, Tom Brady, at his disposal. That obviously will skew the offense more toward throwing the football. That was obvious in the stats, as New England was in the top 10 in pass attempts seven times. When McDaniels was the head coach in Denver (2009-10), the Broncos were also in the top 10 both years in terms of pass attempts. Last season, his first year as the main man in Las Vegas, the Raiders finished 12th in pass percentage and threw the football a total of 586 times. That ranked as the 11th-most in the entire league.
Winner: Lamb
(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)
Receiving Skills
Lamb has had a tremendous start to his NFL career. Over the last two years, he has averaged 74.4 yards per game and has scored a combined 15 touchdown catches. Lamb has averaged more than 16 PPR points per game in that time, too. He’s also a proven playmaker, ranking second in big plays (catches over 20 yards) and ninth in terms of yards after first contact. Lamb is tough to bring down after the catch as well, ranking second behind only Deebo Samuel in broken tackles among wideouts. If there’s a downside to his game, it’s that Lamb is tied for eighth in dropped passes.
As good as Lamb has been in the stat sheets in his young career, Adams has been better. He has scored over 300 PPR fantasy points in four of his last five seasons, including last year when he produced 335.5 points in his first year with the Raiders. He’s also caught 100 or more passes in each of his last three seasons, during which time he’s averaged 166 targets. Over the last two years, Adams ranks sixth in big plays, yards after first contact and broken tackles among wide receivers. He’s also tied with Cooper Kupp for third in terms of red-zone looks during that time.
Winner: Adams
Quarterbacks
Lamb has been a fantasy star for much of his short career in Dallas, and his rapport with Prescott is a big reason. In 32 career games with Prescott under center, Lamb has 178 catches for 2,402 yards with 15 touchdown catches. That’s an average of over five catches and 75 yards per game. Without Prescott, Lamb’s catch average drops below five per game and his average yardage tumbles to under 60 a game.
The Raiders have some questions at quarterback after letting Derek Carr walk as a free agent. Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo is the projected starter, but he’s coming off a foot operation that could have his status for the start of the season in question. If he misses time, and we know Garoppolo has had injury issues in his career, the duo of Brian Hoyer and rookie Aiden O’Connell would be called into action. As great as he has been, Adams’s stock could be hurt by a worst-case scenario at quarterback.
Winner: Lamb
Matt Pendleton/USA Today network
Durability
Lamb has been a durable player in both college and the pros, so durability isn’t much of a concern. In fact, he’s missed just one game in his NFL career. That was in 2021 when he suffered a concussion. Otherwise, Lamb is a dependable option.
Adams has a longer NFL resume than Lamb, so it only makes sense that he’s had more injuries. He missed two games in 2020 due to an injured hamstring and was forced out of four contests the previous season due to a toe sprain. In all, he’s missed just seven combined games in the last six years due to different ailments.
Winner: Push
Strength of Schedule
Neither Lamb nor Adams has a real advantage based on his team’s schedule. Lamb and the Cowboys receivers have the 13th-toughest slate of games among wideouts, while Adams and the Raiders have the 10th-hardest schedule. The point difference in terms of combined fantasy points allowed to the position last season is negligible though, as the Raiders have a 0.1 point better schedule than Dallas.
Winner: Push
And the Pick Is…
These two wide receivers are extremely close in fantasy value as you can obviously tell by their average draft position, and you really can’t go wrong with either player. But in my opinion, Lamb is the better pick if for no other reasons than he’s younger and has a better quarterback. Adams is entering his age-30 season, and his No. 1 quarterback is in question at this point. In fact, you’d almost have to assume that he’ll be playing at least a few games without Garoppolo. Remember, he’s missed a combined 35 games since 2016 due to injuries including 12 in the last three years. Again, there’s a very slight difference in the two receivers in terms of their value, but it’s those few factors that make me side with Lamb for your upcoming drafts.
