Coming off a 5-12 season amid questions whether quarterback Matthew Stafford or head coach Sean McVay would even return, the Los Angeles Rams looked like a franchise in disarray. Instead, they racked up 10 wins before bowing out in a one-point loss to the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card Round. While the defense made marginal improvements — going from 21st in scoring in 2022 to 19th — it was the offense that carried the day, jumping from 27th to eighth.
At the heart of that surge was an unheralded rookie wideout from BYU, who caught 10 balls for 119 yards in Week 1 and wound up finishing in the NFL’s top 10 in both receptions (105) and yardage (1,486) en route to a second-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting behind Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Puka Nacua‘s rise was most surprising for two reasons: 1) he was selected in the fifth round, and 2) he played the same position as LA’s most established weapon, WR Cooper Kupp.
Heading into their second season together, Nacua and Kupp create an interesting Rorschach test for fantasy owners. Did Nacua simply step into a void created by an injury to Kupp with the veteran ready to retake the mantle of WR1 in Los Angeles? Or, has Nacua established himself on par with Kupp, creating, at minimum, a 1a/1b scenario?
Cooper Kupp
In 2021, Kupp dominated opposing secondaries, reeling in 145 passes (on 191 targets) for 1,947 yards, and 16 touchdowns. In two seasons since, he has combined for 134 catches (on 193 targets) for 1,549 yards, and 11 scores. During that time, the veteran has appeared in 21 of 37 games while battling injuries. At age 31, and coming off back-to-back injury-plagued campaigns, it’s fair to wonder if we’ll ever see the Kupp of 2021 again.
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What makes it even more difficult is that we’ve seen the Kupp/Stafford combo fully healthy only once, and that was in 2021. In his six other seasons, four with current Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff and two where either he and/or Stafford were hurt, he’s topped 1,000 yards just once. So, for as highly regarded as Kupp is, his track record for fantasy impact is limited.
Puka Nacua
When Kupp opened last season on IR with a hamstring injury, Nacua stepped up. In those four games, the then-rookie was targeted 52 times, catching 39 passes for 501 yards and a touchdown. That works out to an average of 9.8 receptions (13 targets), 125.3 yards, and 0.3 TDs per contest. It’s worth noting that Kupp missed one more game in which Nacua played, but that was Week 18 when Kupp, Stafford, and several others were held out, so that won’t be factored in.
In between Kupp’s return and the finale, the duo played a dozen games together. During that stretch, Nacua posted 62 receptions on 102 targets for 944 yards and four touchdowns. That averages out to 5.2 receptions (8.5 targets), 78.7 yards, and 0.3 TDs per — take those numbers over a full 17-game season and you get 88 receptions, 145 targets, 1,337 yards, and 5.7 TDs. For comparison, Kupp averaged 4.9 catches (7.9 targets), 61.4 yards, and 0.4 TDs per outing. Nacua’s per-game PPR output dipped 33% when he and Kupp shared the field.
Fantasy football outlook
Clearly, the numbers were quite similar with both players on the field, though even then it was Nacua that came out ahead in both receptions and yardage with Kupp scoring at a slightly higher clip. Still, we’d consider that a win for Nacua, who was in his first year. Given his age (23), he’d be the one you’d expect to take a step forward in 2024 as opposed to someone on the wrong side of 30 and already has had difficulty staying on the field the past two seasons.
Perhaps the biggest unknown is how defenses with treat this tandem. In 2023, it made total sense to slide coverage to Kupp, who was one year removed from his OPOY award, and make Nacua try to prove he deserved more attention each week. If he comes out in Year 2 looking more dangerous, will he be the one that gets doubled? Only time will tell.
Health may be the determining factor, and McVay indicated that Kupp is finally healthy this offseason. We’ll see if it lasts. On draft day, Nacua rates as a legitimate top-10 fantasy receiver, while Kupp is now more of a midrange or even low-end WR2 with potential for more.
