There’s no set rule, no specific level of fantasy failure that must be attained in order to call a player a bust. A bust is a bust is a bust. You know it when you see it.
For the most part, it’s about expectations. More to the point, it’s about failing to live up to lofty expectations. Or maybe the expectations are average but the player is just so ridiculously bad that he’s got to be considered a bust.
The bottom line: If you draft a player that merits bust consideration, it can destroy your fantasy season.
With that said, we surveyed the SI Fantasy staff and they gave us their top pick for 2023 fantasy bust. Here are the players you probably want to avoid this year (or at least don’t draft them too high):
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Michael Fabiano, SI Sr. Fantasy Analyst: Kamara has seen his fantasy stock decline in recent years, as his points per game total has fallen from 25.2 in 2020 down to 14.1 a season ago. That’s due in large part to a decline in his pass-catching chances, the absence of Drew Brees and a decline in his red-zone looks. Kamara is also in danger of being suspended, and the Saints added Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller to what will be a certain committee situation.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
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Jennifer Piacenti, SI Fantasy/Betting Analyst: I have concerns about Josh Jacobs being able to live up to his draft day value. Last season, Jacobs was an absolute beast and the best draft day value on the board, but there is reason to be skeptical that it can be repeated. First, Jimmy Garoppolo is not the kind of quarterback Derek Carr was. Say what you will about Carr, but he could still air it out. Jimmy G is an accurate passer and a good game manager who has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a single season. He also may have a lingering foot issue. With no Darren Waller, defenses can plan to stack the box vs. Jacobs. Add to that the rumors of Jacobs possibly holding out and the fact last season was the only season where he has remained healthy for all 17 games, and I have concerns about last year’s leading rusher doing it again in 2023.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
Kyle Wood, SI Fantasy/Betting Writer: There’s quite a few reasons to be wary of Samuel’s WR18 average draft position, but let’s start with the obvious: No one knows who will be throwing him passes come Week 1! Maybe it will be Brock Purdy, but perhaps it’s Trey Lance or we could even get a Sam Darnold sighting. The uncertainty is concerning, as is the fact that Samuel missed four games in 2022 as he struggled to a WR40 finish. His scrimmage yards were cut in half from the previous season and his opportunities were slashed as well. It’s no coincidence that dip in volume coincided with the arrival of Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk’s breakout. There’s a lot of mouths to feed in San Francisco and Samuel is going more than a round earlier than Aiyuk and three rounds before George Kittle, both of whom finished with more fantasy points than him in 2022. I just don’t see Samuel living up to his draft price.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Ravens
Matt Verderame, SI NFL Writer: Beckham's sizzle doesn't match his recent production. Despite signing a deal this offseason worth up to $18 million, Beckham hasn't made a Pro Bowl since 2016, when he was with the Giants.
Although the Ravens are going to a more pass-happy offense under new coordinator Todd Monken, expect the most production from tight end Mark Andrews and receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. After all, Beckham has missed 30 games over the past three years.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
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Gilberto Manzano, SI NFL Writer: Many are pointing the finger at the Steelers’ poor run blocking for Harris’s disappointing 2022 season, but it’s concerning that Harris has averaged under four yards per carry in each of his first two seasons, with a career average of 3.9. He’s a physical runner who can also contribute in the passing game, but plenty needs to go right for Harris to make an impact. Also, are we convinced that second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett will provide enough balance to keep opposing defenses guessing? That’s not a given based on Pickett’s subpar rookie season. As for the offensive line, the Steelers added guard Isaac Seumalo, but that might not be enough with a shaky right side and a rookie left tackle in Broderick Jones.
