Faith Leaders Warn: GOP's Evangelical Turnout Problem Could Flip the 2026 Midterms

Rev. William Barber II speaks during a news conference about early voting in the midterm election, outside the US Supreme Court in Washington, DC, on October 14, 2026. Americans voting in the November 3 midterm elections will decide who controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency, along with dozens of governorships and thousands of state offices. (Credit: Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images)

The Briefing

• White evangelical Christians make up roughly 13 percent of the U.S. population but accounted for approximately 38 percent of Donald Trump's 2024 winning coalition, making their midterm turnout a decisive variable in Republican hopes to hold Congress.
• Conservative faith leaders warn that no coordinated national party effort is actively mobilizing evangelical voters, even as elevated consumer prices and an underwater presidential approval rating erode base enthusiasm heading into November 3.
• In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico, 37, is locked in a dead heat against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. John Cornyn — a Democratic statewide win in Texas has not happened since 1994.