A London “under siege” with “criminals ruling the streets”. That’s not the plot of a comic book, but rather the picture that mayoral candidate Susan Hall painted of the capital in an article for the Express on Saturday.
Sadiq Khan, who as the mayor for London, also acts as police and crime commissioner for the city, is often targeted with accusations that he has allowed crime to spiral. But Guardian analysis of government data shows the reality is more nuanced.
According the Crime Survey for England and Wales, someone is actually less likely to be a victim of crime in London than they are across the country as a whole. In the capital, 14.9% of people experienced a crime either to their person or their household in the year ending September 2023, compared with 15.7% nationally. But what about different types of crime?
Antisocial behaviour
When it comes to antisocial behaviour, the crime survey shows London has one of the lowest rates. In the year to September 2023, just 26.4% of people said they’d witnessed or experienced antisocial behaviour, compared with 34.2% across England and Wales. Only three police forces scored lower. That figure is also down compared with September 2019 levels, when 44% of people had witnessed or experienced antisocial behaviour (compared with 39% nationally).
Perceptions of antisocial behaviour in London differ from people’s experiences. Despite the relatively low numbers of people actually experiencing antisocial behaviour, 9% of people perceive that there is a high level of antisocial behaviour – above the England and Wales average (7.8%).
Murder
The murder rate in London has also dropped in recent years. Early figures suggest 110 murders were recorded by the Metropolitan police in 2023 – broadly in line with 2022. That’s down from a peak of 153 in 2019, and is also lower than the 120 recorded in 2015 – Boris Johnson’s last full year as mayor.
The rate – roughly equivalent to 12 for every 1 million people – is far from the worst police area for homicides when compared with population. Bedfordshire, Cleveland, Merseyside, West Mercia, South Yorkshire, Humberside and Northumbria all ranked higher in 2023-24, according to ONS figures.
Contrary to some claims made by conservative political activists, there are far fewer murders in London compared with US cities. New York recorded more than 46 murders for every 1 million people in 2023, while Chicago had more than 220, and Philadelphia more than 250.
The decline in murder rate could possibly be down to improved emergency response healthcare.
Knife crime
While London’s knife crime figures are relatively high compared with much of England, the capital is not the worst area when it comes to stabbings. NHS figures show that in Cleveland and the West Midlands police areas more hospital admissions for stab wounds were recorded than in London when compared to overall population sizes.
About 10.1 people in London for every 100,000 residents were admitted to hospital after being assaulted with a knife or sharp object in 2022-23 – up slightly on 2021-22 but down from 12.3 in 2019-20. Cleveland had 12.9 stabbings for every 100,000 people, and the West Midlands 13 for every 100,000. While all three areas are much higher than the England average (6.2), knife-related hospitalisations are still lower than before the pandemic. On current trends, figures for 2023-24 suggest roughly similar numbers of knife related hospitalisations in London to last year – though there may have been a drop in Cleveland.
The hospital figures are borne out by police records. West Midlands police recorded 177 knife crimes for every 100,000 people in the year to September 2023, while Cleveland recorded 159, and the Metropolitan police recorded 158. Police-recorded knife crime in London did rise by a fifth in the last year, and is up compared with when Boris Johnson left office, but it still remains below the pre-pandemic peak of 164 crimes for every 100,000 people.
Gun crime
“Under Sadiq Khan, gun crime has soared by 2,500% in just one year,” claimed Tottenham Conservative Association – several of whose members have stood as Tory candidates in local elections – in a recent post on X. It referred to the scandal as the “Khan crime wave”. The statistic was repeated in a Daily Telegraph article in January.
The figure is shocking – and untrue. It originated in a flawed analysis of Home Office data by the Daily Mail, which later retracted the claim and acknowledged its error.
The latest statistics, for the year ending March 2023, show there were 12 firearm offences for every 100,000 residents in London. That puts it behind Gloucestershire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester, Northamptonshire, West Yorkshire, the West Midlands, South Yorkshire and Cleveland (which had the most gun crime for every 100,000 people: 33 offences).
In the past couple of decades, gun crime has fallen across England and Wales – and London has done particularly well on this front.
Back in 2007-08, the capital recorded 44 firearms offences for every 100,000 people. That dropped to 24 in the first year of Sadiq Khan’s mayoralty, and has since fallen to 12 in the latest year of data.
Figures continue to fall. NHS stats show about 15 hospital admissions in London for assault by firearm in 2023 – down from 25 in 2022.
