The fabled magic of the FA Cup returns to pitches across England and Wales this weekend as the Premier League big boys enter at the third round.
The preliminary rounds of the world’s oldest cup competition were staged all the way back in August, but it’s not until the new year that top division clubs join the hunt for the trophy.
The third round is when the FA Cup really explodes into life and the competition’s trademark giant-killings are never far from view. Some tantalising fixtures spanning from Friday to Monday offer the possibility of historic upsets.
Here are Sports Illustrated’s predictions for the FA Cup third round—picking out some key fixtures to analyse in closer detail.
Manchester City vs. Exeter City
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 10
- Time: 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET / 7 a.m. PT
Manchester City have dropped points in three straight Premier League matches, stumbling to disappointing draws as Arsenal’s stranglehold on top spot tightens. However, Pep Guardiola’s men should be able to take their frustrations out on Exeter City this weekend and rediscover that winning feeling.
Somewhat remarkably, this will be the first ever competitive meeting between the sides, who have somehow avoided crossing paths in the 125 years they have both been active clubs. However, it’s unlikely to be a happy debut in this fixture for the League One side.
City are renowned for demolishing lower league opposition on home soil. They fired eight past Salford City in this round of the FA Cup last season and hit Burton Albion for nine and Rotherham United for seven at the Etihad Stadium during the 2018–19 campaign.
This could be a long afternoon for Exeter, who have at least hit a patch of form in recent weeks.
Prediction: Man City 4–0 Exeter
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 10
- Time: 5:45 p.m. GMT / 12:45 p.m. ET / 9:45 a.m. PT
Thomas Frank is hanging on to his job by his fingernails. Tottenham Hotspur’s late defeat at Bournemouth midweek means they have now won just three of their last 13 matches across all competitions and have slumped to a dire 14th in the Premier League.
Not only have results been underwhelming, performances have been abysmal as Spurs supporters grow increasingly frustrated with Frank’s cautious approach. It remains to be seen how long the former Brentford coach has to save himself, but he would have been hoping for a simpler third round tie when the draw was made.
Villa, who are still outside title contenders in the Premier League, have been in exceptional form under Unai Emery this season and have already clinched victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. A comeback 2–1 victory at the venue in October was another dismal result for Spurs on their own patch.
Rotation is likely in both teams this weekend, making it difficult to predict exactly what kind of encounter we will witness, but Villa’s superior confidence may see them into the fourth round.
Prediction: Tottenham 1–1 Aston Villa AET (Villa win on penalties)
Charlton Athletic vs. Chelsea
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 10
- Time: 8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT
The Liam Rosenior era begins on Saturday night. The newly-appointed Chelsea manager was in the stands to witness his side’s ten-man defeat to west London foes Fulham on Wednesday and he will demand a reaction on his debut in the hot seat.
While a trip to Championship outfit Charlton will not be straightforward, it’s a kind opening fixture for Rosenior. Alterations are expected as Chelsea eye their semi-final first leg with Arsenal in the Carabao Cup midweek, but a deep reserve of talent should facilitate a relatively routine triumph.
Charlton are hardly pulling up any trees in the second tier, with relegation a distinct possibility, but The Valley will be bouncing for Chelsea’s visit. The Blues have been unconvincing in cup victories over Cardiff City and Lincoln City already this term and must be wary on Saturday.
Once a regular Premier League fixture, these sides haven’t locked horns since their most recent top-flight duel in February 2007. Unsurprisingly, Chelsea were winners that day.
Prediction: Charlton 1–3 Chelsea
Portsmouth vs. Arsenal
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 11
- Time: 2 p.m. GMT / 9 a.m. ET / 6 a.m. PT
Arsenal missed the opportunity to move eight points clear at the Premier League’s summit following their goalless draw with Liverpool on Thursday, but they won’t be too dispirited ahead of their trip to Fratton Park.
The Gunners now boast a deep and star-studded squad capable of handling such cup ties with little fuss and they will be expected to win handsomely against Portsmouth. A resilient defence will prove difficult for the Championship side to unlock, while Pompey will struggle to keep a terrific attack at bay.
Portsmouth’s focus is on staying in the Championship for another season as they battle to beat the drop and while Sunday’s encounter could prove a welcome distraction, an FA Cup exit would not be the end of the world for John Mousinho’s side.
Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are the only survivors from the Arsenal squad that beat Portsmouth 2–0 in the FA Cup fifth round back in 2020.
Prediction: Portsmouth 0–3 Arsenal
Manchester United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 11
- Time: 4:30 p.m. GMT / 11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT
Uncertainty surrounds Manchester United at present as their search for an interim manager until the end of the season continues. Darren Fletcher is reportedly among the candidates, but hardly inspired confidence when stumbling to a 2–2 draw with relegation-threatened Burnley midweek.
Benjamin Šeško’s brace was enough to avoid utter humiliation for the Red Devils in their first outing since Ruben Amorim’s dismissal, but a tricky FA Cup tie was the last thing the club needed during a difficult period.
Brighton & Hove Albion might have been beaten 4–2 at Old Trafford back in October, but the Seagulls had won their previous three trips to the venue in the Premier League. Having earned a point across Manchester at the Etihad Stadium midweek, they will fancy their chances of progression to the fourth round on Sunday.
Revenge is also on the mind for Brighton, who were beaten on penalties in the FA Cup semis by Man Utd back in 2022–23.
Prediction: Man Utd 2–3 Brighton AET
Liverpool vs. Barnsley
- Date: Monday, Jan. 12
- Time: 7:45 p.m. GMT / 2:45 p.m. ET / 11:45 a.m. PT
Liverpool have been stung by Barnsley in the FA Cup before. The Yorkshire outfit, then of the Championship, journeyed to Anfield in the fifth round back in 2007–08, with Brian Howard’s late strike securing a famous 2–1 giant-killing for Barnsley en route to the semis.
Given Liverpool’s inconsistencies this season, a repeat result cannot be entirely dismissed, although Barnsley, who are now struggling in League One, will need an even greater miracle on Monday night.
Liverpool’s Premier League title defence may have been disastrous, but they have steadied themselves in recent weeks. An impressive midweek draw at the Emirates means they are ten games unbeaten and should be able to see off their lower league visitors with few problems.
Strength in depth is an issue for the Reds, who find themselves short in attack and defence, but even their second-string outfit should canter into the fourth round.
FA Cup Third Round Predictions
| Date | Kick-Off Time | Fixture | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jan. 9 | 7:30 p.m. GMT / 2:30 p.m. ET | MK Dons vs. Oxford United | 1–1 AET (MK Dons win on penalties) |
| Friday, Jan. 9 | 7:30 p.m. GMT / 2:30 p.m. ET | Port Vale vs. Fleetwood Town | 1–2 |
| Friday, Jan. 9 | 7:30 p.m. GMT / 2:30 p.m. ET | Preston North End vs. Wigan Athletic | 1–0 |
| Friday, Jan. 9 | 7:30 p.m. GMT / 2:30 p.m. ET | Wrexham vs. Nottingham Forest | 1–2 AET |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 12:15 p.m. GMT / 7:15 a.m. ET | Cheltenham Town vs Leicester City | 1–3 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 12:15 p.m. GMT / 7:15 a.m. ET | Everton vs. Sunderland | 0–0 AET (Sunderland win on penalties) |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 12:15 p.m. GMT / 7:15 a.m. ET | Macclesfield vs. Crystal Palace | 0–3 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 12:15 p.m. GMT / 7:15 a.m. ET | Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Shrewsbury Town | 4–0 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Boreham Wood vs. Burton Albion | 1–2 AET |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Burnley vs. Millwall | 0–1 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Doncaster Rovers vs. Southampton | 0–2 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Fulham vs. Middlesbrough | 2–1 |
| Saturday Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Ipswich Town vs. Blackpool | 4–2 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Manchester City vs. Exeter City | 4–0 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Newcastle United vs. Bournemouth | 2–2 AET (Newcastle win on penalties) |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Salford City vs. Swindon Town | 2–1 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Sheffield Wednesday vs. Brentford | 1–4 |
| Saturday, Jan.10 | 3 p.m. GMT / 10 a.m. ET | Stoke City vs. Coventry City | 2–1 AET |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 5:45 p.m. GMT / 12:45 p.m. ET | Bristol City vs. Watford | 1–3 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 5:45 p.m. GMT / 12:45 p.m. ET | Cambridge United vs. Birmingham City | 0–2 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 5:45 p.m. GMT / 12:45 p.m. ET | Grimsby Town vs. Weston-super-Mare | 3–1 |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 5:45 p.m. GMT / 12:45 p.m. ET | Tottenham vs. Aston Villa | 1–1 AET (Villa win on penalties) |
| Saturday, Jan. 10 | 8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET | Charlton Athletic vs. Chelsea | 1–3 |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 12 p.m. GMT / 7 a.m. ET | Derby County vs. Leeds United | 2–1 |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 2 p.m. GMT / 9 a.m. ET | Portsmouth vs. Arsenal | 0–3 |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 2:30 p.m. GMT / 9:30 a.m. ET | Hull City vs. Blackburn Rovers | 1–2 AET |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 2:30 p.m. GMT / 9:30 a.m. ET | Norwich City vs Walsall | 2–0 |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 2:30 p.m. GMT / 9:30 a.m. ET | Sheffield United vs. Mansfield Town | 1–0 |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 2:30 p.m. GMT / 9:30 a.m. ET | Swansea City vs. West Bromwich Albion | 2–1 |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 2:30 p.m. GMT / 9:30 a.m. ET | West Ham United vs. Queens Park Rangers | 3–1 |
| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 4:30 p.m. GMT / 11:30 a.m. ET | Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 2–3 AET |
| Monday, Jan. 12 | 7:45 p.m. GMT / 2:45 p.m. ET | Liverpool vs. Barnsley | 3–1 |
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as FA Cup Third Round Predictions: Liverpool, Arsenal Out to Avoid Upsets.
